The AAII San Francisco Chapter presents...

"Investment Opportunity: The Last Two Hundred Years, and the Next Eight"

    Discussed by:

    Bill Ragsdale

Over the last two hundred years, the U.S. economy experienced roughly 20-year periods of growth and then the same duration of stagnation, as we are currently experiencing. Researchers have found the passage of generational age groups drives these social, economic and political trends. Bill Ragsdale will review these sequences in word and picture: how they brought us to the Great Depression, the Internet/NASDAQ collapse of 2000, the debt collapse of 2008, the Great Recession and the outlook for the next eight years. Ragsdale will show how the integration of social trends developed by William Strauss and Neil Howe, the company valuation of Michael A. Alexander, the market valuation from Robert J. Schiller) and the Reinhart and Rogoff debt theories present a consistent picture of stock bull/bear market periods and show the way for the next decade. Ragsdale will examine the investment opportunities and appropriate methods to face the difficulties still ahead. He will pass on a tip on how to spot major market reversals at two to four intervals.

"The Coming U.S. Energy Revolution"

    Discussed by:
    Jack Bowers
    CEO, Independent Fidelity Investors, Inc.; Publisher, Fidelity Monitor & Insight

In some ways it seems like 1859 all over again, as oil is being discovered for the first time all over the country. Along the way, all existing assumptions about exploration, development and production constraints are fast going out the window. Even environmental concerns are fast being put to rest as regulations and analysis displace hype. This is a wonderful gift for the U.S. economy, but it’s only half the story. A similar disruption innovation is taking place for domestic fuel demand that has yet to show its full impact. But like Devon Energy and George Mitchell, the father of fracking, there is a company that has “cracked the code.” That company is Tesla Motors, and if its vehicles impact the automotive industry the way the Prius did over the last decade, it could put a significant dent in domestic liquid fuel demand. The combined impact of increased oil production and reduced fuel demand could have a big impact in coming decades. The U.S., currently the world’s biggest oil importer, is likely to become the world’s biggest fuel exporter. That has bullish implications not only for trade, but also for federal tax revenue and deficits.

Saturday, September 21, 2013
9:00 a.m.    Registration/Social/Continental Breakfast
9:30 a.m.    Bill Ragsdale Presentation
10:45 a.m.    Break
11:00 a.m.    Jack Bowers Presentation
12:00 p.m.    Q&A
Hs Lordships Restaurant
199 Seawall Dr.
Berkeley, CA
[ Map This Location ]
Choose one of three ways to register for this meeting: In Advance (by 9/18) Everyone prepaid by mail, $30/person Everyone by email or phone and pay at the door, space permitting $35/person (; 510/526-1154) At the Door space permitting Everyone, $40/person Refunds for cancellations before cut-off date.

  Special Interest Groups (SIGs)

SIG meetings do NOT require advance registration (some may request an RSVP). Most are free of charge. Contact the group leader if you need additional information to attend.


East Bay Discussion and Special Interest Group
Attendance is free for all AAII members & guests.
Date: Thursdays, September 12 and October 10, 2013
Time: 7:00 – 8:40 p.m.
Location: The Orinda Library, 24 Orinda Way, Garden Gallery/May Rooms
Moderator: Mike Skinner
These meetings are held every month except December. The agenda varies between open forum topics suggested by attendees at the meeting, and speakers and presentations on topics suggested in advance. Attendees have different experience levels and investment approaches. This is an opportunity to discuss current investment issues, share questions and concerns in an open forum, and interact in a small group setting with presenters and other attendees.
For more information, contact Mike Skinner, group leader, at 510/526-1154 or

San Francisco Downtown Experienced Investor
Discussion Group
Attendance is free for all AAII members, but space is limited to first 20 attendees.
Dates: Wednesdays, October 16 and November 20, 2013
Time: 12:00 p.m.
Moderator: Kevin Donovan
These meetings, held the third Wednesday of each month, are a general discussion of timely topics for experienced investors. Space is limited to 20 attendees, so please call for reservations and location. Please note, there will be no meetings in August
For more information contact, Kevin Donovan, group leader, at 415/788-1700.

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