Bullish sentiment flat for month as market volatility increases
by CI Staff
Bullish sentiment
Results as of May 6, 2010:
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Bullish: 39.13%
Neutral: 32.30%
Bearish: 28.57%
Bullish sentiment started and ended the month of April at 41.3%. During the month, it rose as high as 48.5% (on April 15) and fell as low as 38.1% (on April 22). Bearish sentiment started April at 31.2% and gradually declined to close the month at 28.6%, peaking at 34.3% on April 22. During April, the market moved just as little: the Wilshire 5000 gained about 2% and the S&P 500 gained about 1.5%.
Once again, as the AAII Sentiment survey hit its April peak of 48.5%, the Wilshire 5000 and the S&P 500 both gained over 2% during the week. As the market fell the next week, bullish sentiment dropped and bearish sentiment rose.
The first few days of May have been a roller coaster. On May 3, the Wilshire 5000 gained 1.4% only to fall 2.5% the next day. The sentiment survey reflects this uncertainty as bullish sentiment fell to 39.1% this week while bearish sentiment remained basically unchanged.
To participate in the AAII Sentiment Survey, or to view historical survey results, click here.
Long-Term Average and Extreme Values
Bullish:
Average: 39.0%, Max: 75.0% (1/6/2000), Min: 12.0% (11/16/1990)
Neutral:
Average: 30.8%, Max: 62.0% (6/3/1988), Min: 8.0% (12/14/2000)
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Bearish:
Average: 30.2%, Max: 70.0% (3/5/2009), Min: 6.0% (8/21/1987)
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