Market Dashboard

Last updated on 4/28/2017

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iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover
Bullish
Latest Analysis →
Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs
Neutral
Latest Analysis →
NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation
Bullish
Latest Analysis →
MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)
Bullish
Latest Analysis →
Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average
Bearish
Latest Analysis →
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage
Bullish
Latest Analysis →
NYSE New Highs/New Lows
Neutral
Latest Analysis →
NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure
Bearish
Latest Analysis →
Shiller CAPE
Neutral
Latest Analysis →

Analysis: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) climbed 1.3% this week to $119.47. On Tuesday and Thursday of this week, the ETF notched new all-time high closes.

For the 25th week in a row, the ETF closed above its 100-day moving average. Therefore, this indicator remains BULLISH.

The 100-day moving average of IYY's closing price ended the week at 115.86. The spread between the IYY closing price and the moving average stands at +3.1%.

As long as the weekly closing price of IYY ends the week above its 100-day moving average in a “meaningful” way, this indicator will remain BULLISH. If IYY was to close the week with meaningful separation below its 100-day moving average, the indicator would trigger a new bearish signal. If the weekly closing price of IYY and its 100-day moving average are basically the same, the indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

The MACD of IYY ended the week with clear upside separation with its signal line.

Having creating positive separation between the MACD and signal lines this week, this indicator has triggered a new BULLISH signal, switching from neutral.

The MACD of IYY stands at +0.453 while the signal line is at +0.224.

As long as the MACD continues to end the week with clear separation with its signal line to the upside, this indicator will remain BULLISH. If the MACD was to end the week below its signal line with meaningful separation, this would trigger a new bearish signal. If the MACD was to end the week without “meaningful” separation between it and its signal line, this would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: NYSE New Highs/New Lows

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 4/28/2017

The net number of NYSE stocks hitting a new 52-week high at the close of this week compared to the number of new lows ended this week at +242, up from +97 a week ago.

However, this indicator remains NEUTRAL.

This indicator will trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the -750 level from positive territory and start to recover, or if the reading experiences a peak-to-trough decline of 750 points or more over a 10-trading-day period and then begins to rebound. At the close of this week, the peak-to-trough spread for this indicator stands at 48 (287 – 239).

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 4/28/2017

The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching a new 52-week high this week stands at 17.3 after posting a sharp increase from last week’s reading of 9.4%. This is the highest level in 20 weeks.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL since the reading did not fall from above the 25% bearish threshold this week.

There were 1,901 NYSE stocks posting gains this week compared to 2,055 a week ago. In contrast, 1,175 stocks ended the week with a loss. The ratio of winners to losers is currently 1.62, down from last week’s reading of 2.04.

There were 544 NYSE stocks that closed the week at a new 52-week high, up from 295 the week before and the highest number in 20 weeks. By means of comparison, 71 NYSE stocks closed this week at a new 52-week low.

This indicator remains NEUTRAL. The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs needs to rise above the 25% bearish threshold and then fall below it to trigger a bearish signal. The last time the reading was above the 25% bearish threshold was May 24, 2013. The next week the reading fell below 25%, triggering a bearish signal. The indicator reverted to neutral six months later, on November 21, 2013, having failed to generate another confirming bearish signal. There is no bullish threshold for the lower range of this indicator.

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 4/28/2017

The percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average ended the week at 61.32, up from 55.37 a week ago. This is the highest week-ending reading since March 3.

However, this indicator remains BEARISH.

The signal for this indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017. If there is not a confirming bearish signal before then, the signal will go “stale” on that date and revert to neutral. A confirming bearish signal would occur if the indicator were to rise above the 75% level and fall back below it. This would push the “stale date” back six months from the date of the confirming bearish signal. Alternatively, if the indicator reading falls below the 25% bullish threshold and rises above it, this would trigger a new bullish signal.

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Analysis: NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 4/28/2017

The NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA) ended the week at 67.82, up from 65.2 the week before. This is the highest week-ending level for this indicator since March 3.

However, this indicator remains BEARISH.

This indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017, on which date the signal with go “stale” and revert to neutral. The “stale date” would be pushed back if a confirming bearish signal was generated before that date. This would happen if the indicator rises above the 70% bearish threshold and then starts to decline. Alternatively, the indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the 30% bullish threshold and then rebound.

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Analysis: NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

The component indicators of the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator are both flashing BULLISH signals this week.

Therefore, this composite indicator remains BULLISH for the second week in a row.

The first indicator used by the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and its five-day exponential moving average. When the $NASI is above its moving average line, this is bullish, while readings below the moving average line are bearish. $NASI once again ended the week above its moving average, which is BULLISH for this component indicator. $NASI ended the week at +120.81 versus the moving average at +57.92.

The second indicator used for the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the MACD of $NASI. When the MACD is above the signal line, this is considered bullish, whereas MACD readings that are below the signal line are bearish. The MACD line ended the week above the signal line with “meaningful” separation between the two. This is a BULLISH signal for this component indicator. The MACD of $NASI is +3.61 while the signal line is -26.155.

The NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator will remain BULLISH if the two component indicators are both flashing bullish signals. This composite indicator would trigger a new bearish signal if the two component indicators are both flashing bearish signals. The indicator would trigger a new neutral signal if the two component indicators are not in agreement.

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Analysis: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment jumped 12.3-percentage points this week to 38.0%. This is the biggest one-week increase in bullish sentiment since November 10 and the highest reading in nine weeks.

This indicator remains BULLISH.

This indicator will remain BULLISH until May 17, 2017. If there is not another confirming bullish signal before then, the current bullish signal will go “stale” and revert to neutral. A confirming bullish signal would occur if the reading falls below 25% and then climbs back above it. If there is a confirming bullish signal before May 17, 2017, the “stale date” would be pushed back six months. Alternatively, a new bearish signal would be triggered if the reading rises above the 50% bearish threshold and then falls back below it.

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Analysis: Shiller CAPE

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 4/28/2017

The Shiller CAPE climbed to 29.29 this week, from 28.93 a week ago. This is the highest week- or month-ending reading since March 2002.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL.

With the median historical CAPE standing at 16.13, this week's reading is between the bearish threshold of 32.25 (twice the historical median) and the bullish threshold of 8.06 (one-half the historical median).

If the Shiller CAPE reading were to cross the bearish threshold (32.25) to the upside, the indicator would trigger a bearish signal. Currently, the Shiller CAPE is 9.2% below the bearish threshold.

Alternatively, if the CAPE reading were to fall below the bullish threshold (8.06), which is one-half the historical median level, the indicator would trigger a bullish signal. The CAPE would need to fall 72.5% to trigger a new bullish signal.

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Analysis: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) climbed 1.3% this week to $119.47. On Tuesday and Thursday of this week, the ETF notched new all-time high closes.

For the 25th week in a row, the ETF closed above its 100-day moving average. Therefore, this indicator remains BULLISH.

The 100-day moving average of IYY's closing price ended the week at 115.86. The spread between the IYY closing price and the moving average stands at +3.1%.

As long as the weekly closing price of IYY ends the week above its 100-day moving average in a “meaningful” way, this indicator will remain BULLISH. If IYY was to close the week with meaningful separation below its 100-day moving average, the indicator would trigger a new bearish signal. If the weekly closing price of IYY and its 100-day moving average are basically the same, the indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

The MACD of IYY ended the week with clear upside separation with its signal line.

Having creating positive separation between the MACD and signal lines this week, this indicator has triggered a new BULLISH signal, switching from neutral.

The MACD of IYY stands at +0.453 while the signal line is at +0.224.

As long as the MACD continues to end the week with clear separation with its signal line to the upside, this indicator will remain BULLISH. If the MACD was to end the week below its signal line with meaningful separation, this would trigger a new bearish signal. If the MACD was to end the week without “meaningful” separation between it and its signal line, this would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: NYSE New Highs/New Lows

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 4/28/2017

The net number of NYSE stocks hitting a new 52-week high at the close of this week compared to the number of new lows ended this week at +242, up from +97 a week ago.

However, this indicator remains NEUTRAL.

This indicator will trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the -750 level from positive territory and start to recover, or if the reading experiences a peak-to-trough decline of 750 points or more over a 10-trading-day period and then begins to rebound. At the close of this week, the peak-to-trough spread for this indicator stands at 48 (287 – 239).

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 4/28/2017

The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching a new 52-week high this week stands at 17.3 after posting a sharp increase from last week’s reading of 9.4%. This is the highest level in 20 weeks.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL since the reading did not fall from above the 25% bearish threshold this week.

There were 1,901 NYSE stocks posting gains this week compared to 2,055 a week ago. In contrast, 1,175 stocks ended the week with a loss. The ratio of winners to losers is currently 1.62, down from last week’s reading of 2.04.

There were 544 NYSE stocks that closed the week at a new 52-week high, up from 295 the week before and the highest number in 20 weeks. By means of comparison, 71 NYSE stocks closed this week at a new 52-week low.

This indicator remains NEUTRAL. The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs needs to rise above the 25% bearish threshold and then fall below it to trigger a bearish signal. The last time the reading was above the 25% bearish threshold was May 24, 2013. The next week the reading fell below 25%, triggering a bearish signal. The indicator reverted to neutral six months later, on November 21, 2013, having failed to generate another confirming bearish signal. There is no bullish threshold for the lower range of this indicator.

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 4/28/2017

The percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average ended the week at 61.32, up from 55.37 a week ago. This is the highest week-ending reading since March 3.

However, this indicator remains BEARISH.

The signal for this indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017. If there is not a confirming bearish signal before then, the signal will go “stale” on that date and revert to neutral. A confirming bearish signal would occur if the indicator were to rise above the 75% level and fall back below it. This would push the “stale date” back six months from the date of the confirming bearish signal. Alternatively, if the indicator reading falls below the 25% bullish threshold and rises above it, this would trigger a new bullish signal.

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Analysis: NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 4/28/2017

The NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA) ended the week at 67.82, up from 65.2 the week before. This is the highest week-ending level for this indicator since March 3.

However, this indicator remains BEARISH.

This indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017, on which date the signal with go “stale” and revert to neutral. The “stale date” would be pushed back if a confirming bearish signal was generated before that date. This would happen if the indicator rises above the 70% bearish threshold and then starts to decline. Alternatively, the indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the 30% bullish threshold and then rebound.

CLOSE

Analysis: NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

The component indicators of the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator are both flashing BULLISH signals this week.

Therefore, this composite indicator remains BULLISH for the second week in a row.

The first indicator used by the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and its five-day exponential moving average. When the $NASI is above its moving average line, this is bullish, while readings below the moving average line are bearish. $NASI once again ended the week above its moving average, which is BULLISH for this component indicator. $NASI ended the week at +120.81 versus the moving average at +57.92.

The second indicator used for the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the MACD of $NASI. When the MACD is above the signal line, this is considered bullish, whereas MACD readings that are below the signal line are bearish. The MACD line ended the week above the signal line with “meaningful” separation between the two. This is a BULLISH signal for this component indicator. The MACD of $NASI is +3.61 while the signal line is -26.155.

The NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator will remain BULLISH if the two component indicators are both flashing bullish signals. This composite indicator would trigger a new bearish signal if the two component indicators are both flashing bearish signals. The indicator would trigger a new neutral signal if the two component indicators are not in agreement.

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Analysis: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 4/28/2017

AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment jumped 12.3-percentage points this week to 38.0%. This is the biggest one-week increase in bullish sentiment since November 10 and the highest reading in nine weeks.

This indicator remains BULLISH.

This indicator will remain BULLISH until May 17, 2017. If there is not another confirming bullish signal before then, the current bullish signal will go “stale” and revert to neutral. A confirming bullish signal would occur if the reading falls below 25% and then climbs back above it. If there is a confirming bullish signal before May 17, 2017, the “stale date” would be pushed back six months. Alternatively, a new bearish signal would be triggered if the reading rises above the 50% bearish threshold and then falls back below it.

CLOSE

Analysis: Shiller CAPE

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 4/28/2017

The Shiller CAPE climbed to 29.29 this week, from 28.93 a week ago. This is the highest week- or month-ending reading since March 2002.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL.

With the median historical CAPE standing at 16.13, this week's reading is between the bearish threshold of 32.25 (twice the historical median) and the bullish threshold of 8.06 (one-half the historical median).

If the Shiller CAPE reading were to cross the bearish threshold (32.25) to the upside, the indicator would trigger a bearish signal. Currently, the Shiller CAPE is 9.2% below the bearish threshold.

Alternatively, if the CAPE reading were to fall below the bullish threshold (8.06), which is one-half the historical median level, the indicator would trigger a bullish signal. The CAPE would need to fall 72.5% to trigger a new bullish signal.

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Overview: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover

The IYY is an ETF tracking the performance of the Dow ones U.S. Index and holds roughly 1,300 stocks. The Dow Jones U.S. Index is designed to represent approximately 95% of the investable U.S. stock market and is a market-cap-weighted index. Since it is a market-cap-weighted index, its performance is dominated by the largest stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. However, it offers broader market exposure than the S&P 500 Large Cap Index or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, our analysis indicates that the Dow Jones U.S. Index is slightly more responsive to changes in market direction relative to other indexes.

Moving averages are the simplest trend indicators. When deciding on the number of periods to use when calculating a moving average, there is a balancing act between timeliness and usefulness. The fewer number of periods you use, the more responsive the moving average is to changing trends. This, in turn, produces better profits in both bull and bear markets. All else equal, IYY closing prices above the moving average line indicate a bullish, upward trend, while IYY closing prices below the moving average line indicate a downward, bearish trend.

However, the downside of using a more responsive moving average, with fewer periods in the calculation, is the greater potential for "whipsaws." A whipsaw occurs when a security's price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. If your moving average is too responsive, it may generate back-to-back buy/sell signals based in this short-term price movement. Whipsaws are especially common when the market is moving within a trading range (moving sideways). When this happens, moving averages tend to flatten out, increasing the likelihood that the price can close above or below the moving average line in short succession. Acting on these buy and sell signals can result in a string of unprofitable trades and higher trading costs. It is for this reason that we don't rely on only a moving average as in indicator of the market's direction.

A bullish signal is generated when the closing price of IYY rises above the 100-day moving average. A bearish signal is generated when the IYY closing price crosses below the moving average.

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Overview: MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)

The moving average convergence/ divergence (MACD) is a trend-following indicator developed by Gerald Appel. It is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA (periods can be days, weeks, months, etc.). Exponential moving averages place greater weighting on more recent prices, making them more reactive to recent price moves than simple moving averages, which place equal weighting on each periodic price.

This indicator also consists of a "signal line," which is a nine-period moving average of the MACD. The indicator generates buy and sell signals when the MACD line crosses the signal line—a crossover from below is a buy and a crossover from above is a sell.

Since the MACD makes use of moving averages, like the IYY moving average crossover indicator, it is sometimes prone to generating false short-term signals. This again highlights the importance of using multiple indicators when determining when to buy and sell.

Beyond using crossovers between the signal line and MACD to identify possible buy and sell points, traders also look for divergences between the direction of the MACD and the underlying security or index. When you see the MACD making new highs while the underlying security or index is falling, this points to a possible reversal in the index or security.

A bullish signal is generated when the MACD line crosses above the signal line; a bearish signal is generated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. On those rare occasions where the MACD line and signal line are basically equal, the indicator is neutral.

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Overview: NYSE New Highs/New Lows

The NYSE High Highs/New Lows indicator ($NYHL) is the difference between the number of daily new highs and the number of new daily lows for the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). An increase from extremely negative readings is a possible indication of a market reversal to the upside.

A bullish signal is generated when the $NYHL falls to -750 or lower and then begins to increase. Alternatively, if the $NYHL declines by 750 points or more from a reading above zero and then begins to increase, this too is a bullish signal. Otherwise, the indicator is neutral. The last time $NYHL registered a value of -750 or lower was October 4, 2011, when it fell to -1,192. Dating back to the start of 1990, we have not observed a week in which $NYHL fell by at least 750 without also registering a value of -750 or lower. Therefore, we have extended this out so that if, at the end of trading for a week, $NYHL has fallen by 750 points or more from a positive reading in the preceding 10 trading days, the indicator triggers a bullish signal. The last time this happened was the week ended May 7, 2010. Over the 10 trading days ended May 7, the $NYHL had fallen from +665 on April 26 to -166 on May 6, for a decline of 831 points.

The indicator will also move from a bullish signal to a neutral signal if no new bullish signals are generated in the six months following an initial bullish signal.

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Overview: Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs

One drawback of the NYSE New Highs/New Lows indicator is that a reversal from an extremely positive number is not a reliable indicator of possible market reversal to the downside. An alternative is to look at the percentage of NYSE stocks hitting a new high each week. When this percentage reaches extreme high levels and then begins to fall, this is an indication that a market top has been reached.

This indicator is bearish when the percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs is 25% or greater but is declining. When the indicator is below 25% or above 25% and still rising, it is neutral. Once a bearish signal is generated, that signal will remain in effect for six months, unless a confirming signal in the same direction is generated, at which point the date will be reset (or if a signal in the opposite direction is generated). If no confirming bearish signal is generated over the following six months after an initial bearish signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average

Extreme overbought or oversold conditions in the market often are precursors to a reversal. When a large percentage of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, this can indicate an overbought condition, with an increased chance of a market reversal to the downside. Alternatively, when a small percentage of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, this potentially oversold condition may signal an upcoming reversal to the upside.

The indicator is bullish when the when the percentage drops to 25% or lower and then begins to rise. Likewise, a bearish signal occurs when the percentage reaches 75% or above and then begins to decline. The indicator is neutral when neither of these conditions is being met—the percentage is below 25% and falling; the percentage is above 75% and rising; or the indicator is between 25% and 75% without a recent reversal from extreme levels. Once a bullish or bearish signal is generated, that signal will remain in effect for six months, unless a confirming signal in the same direction is generated, at which point the date will be reset (or if a signal in the opposite direction is generated). If no new signal is generated over the following six months after a signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure

The NYSE bullish percentage (NYSBP) indicator tallies the number of NYSE stocks whose point & figure charts are currently indicating a buy signal and expresses the number as a percentage of all NYSE stocks. When this percentage reaches extremely high levels and begins to decline, the market may be headed for a reversal to the downside. Likewise, when this percentage begins to rise from extremely low levels, the market may be forming a bottom and preparing to reverse to the upside.

A bullish signal is generated when the bullish percentage falls to 30% or below and starts to turn upward. A bearish signal is generated when the percentage peaks above 70% and begins to turn downward. The indicator is neutral if neither of these conditions is met—the indicator is below 30% and falling; above 70% and is rising; or the indicator is between 30% and 70% without a recent reversal from extreme levels. Once a bullish or bearish signal is generated, that signal will remain in effect for six months, unless a confirming signal in the same direction is generated, at which point the date will be reset (or if a signal in the opposite direction is generated). If no new signal is generated over the following six months after a signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation

The NASDAQ summation index (NASI) consists of two parts. The first is the difference between the number of advancing stocks and the number of declining stocks in the Nasdaq composite index. The second is the five-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the summation (NASI) line. When the NASI line crosses above the EMA, this is considered a buy signal, while a crossover to the downside is a sell signal. Adding a MACD of IYY can serve as a confirmation of the crossover buy and sell signals on the NASI. A NASI buy signal is confirmed when the MACD line crosses above its signal line; likewise a NASI sell signal is confirmed when the MACD crosses below its signal line.

Furthermore, when both the NASI and MACD are showing positive divergence with the NASDAQ composite—reaching new highs while the index is declining—this can be viewed as a strong buy signal. Likewise, negative divergence with both indicators is considered a strong sell signal.

A bullish signal is generated when the NASI rises above its five-day EMA and is confirmed by the MACD crossing above its signal line on or near the same day. A bearish signal is generated when the index falls below the five-day EMA and the MACD has a confirming sell signal on or near the same day. If neither of these conditions is being met, the indicator is neutral.

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Overview: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage

Investor sentiment is often used as a contrarian indicator—individual investors tend to be most bearish at market bottoms and most bullish at market tops.

One sentiment indicator that is widely followed by professional traders and the financial press is AAII's Investor Sentiment Survey. Each week, AAII members can vote online as to where they think the market is going over the next six months—up (bullish), down (bearish), or sideways (neutral). The results are published each Thursday at the AAII website (www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey).

A bullish signal is generated when the percentage bullish reading drops to 25% and then rises the next week; a bearish signal is generated when the percentage bullish reading rises to 50% and then drops the following week. If neither of these conditions is being met, the indicator is neutral. In addition, if no new confirming signal is generated within six months after a bullish or bearish signal is generated, or if a signal is the opposite direction is not generated within six months of a bullish or bearish signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: Shiller CAPE

The Shiller CAPE comes from Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. CAPE is short for cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. It is cyclically adjusted in the sense that the earnings used in the calculation are averaged over a longer interval of time; Shiller uses 10 years. Shiller's research shows that real price divided by the 10-year average of earnings does actually help predict the stock market. The numerator of the CAPE is the real "inflation-adjusted" price level of the S&P 500 index.

Shiller believes that the stock market is somewhat predictable, but he admits that the CAPE ratio does not predict what is going to happen next year very well. Unlike the other indicators used in the CI Market Dashboard, which are short-term in nature, the CAPE is a long-term indicator. The CAPE predicts what will happen over the next five or 10 years. In other words, when prices are high relative to 10-year average earnings, then that suggests that prices will come down, but you don't know exactly when. You might have to wait five years or 10 years for them to come down. For patient, long-term investors, the CAPE is an indicator of value.

For the purpose of our market dashboard, a bearish signal is generated when the CAPE rises to 100% or more than its historical median or midpoint value. A bullish signal is generated when the CAPE falls 50% or more below the historical median. The indicator is neutral when neither of these conditions is being met. In addition, if no new confirming signal is generated within six months after a bullish or bearish signal is generated, or if a signal is the opposite direction is not generated within six months of a bullish or bearish signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Market Dashboard Commentary

By Wayne A. Thorp, CFA
4/28/2017

Weekly Market Summary

U.S. stocks ended April higher, buoyed by strong corporate earnings. The week started off strongly in the wake of the results of the French presidential elections, which had the centrist candidate winning the first round. The Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all posted their biggest gains in nearly two months on Monday.

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, S&P 500 companies are beating analysts’ estimates for earnings and sales at the highest rate since 2012. And with nearly 60% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported their results for the first calendar quarter of 2017, earnings are on track to rise 12.5% from the year prior, according to FactSet. This is above the first-quarter earnings growth of 9.1% that analysts estimated as of March 31.

Also this week, the Trump administration outlined its long-awaited tax plan. In recent weeks, the promises of tax cuts had pushed stocks higher, but the devil is in the details and the market responded somewhat indifferently. Some analysts said the plan, which calls for lowering business tax rates and a major overhaul to the individual-tax system, offered few new details and faced a tough road to passage.

Stocks took a step back on Friday as data showed the U.S. economy cooled significantly in the first quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 0.7% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the Commerce Department said, falling short of the 1% growth expected by economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. However, it exceeded the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s widely tracked GDPNow model, which on Thursday forecast 0.2% growth for the first quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) added 1.9% this week and closed at 20,940.51. On Monday, the blue-chip index gapped up at the open, clearing the 50-day moving average and remained above this key support level the rest of the week. The first support level will be around 20,800 if the index fills in Monday’s gap. Below that is the 50-day moving average, which is currently at 20,759.67. For the month, the Dow gained 1.3%.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) posted a 1.5% gain this week to close at 2,384.20. The large-cap index is less than 0.5% below its all-time high close set on March 1. Like the Dow, the S&P 500 gapped upward at Monday’s open and moved above its 50-day moving average, where is stayed for the rest of the week. It seems that the all-time market around 2,395 may be a speed of a resistance point moving forward. To the downside, there is the 50-day moving average at 2,363.10 for initial support. There is also the 2,355 mark, which could offer support of the index filled in Monday’s gap. For the month, the S&P 500 climbed 0.9%.

This week, eight of the 10 S&P Sector SPDRs posted gains. Health care (XLV) posted the strongest gains, adding 2.5%, followed by Technology (XLK), which gained 2.3%. Real Estate (XLRE) was the weakest sector, falling 2.1%. Utilities (XLU) also posted a loss for the week, ticking downward 0.1%.

For April, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) was the big winner, gaining 2.4%. Technology also had a strong month, rising 2.0%. Energy (XLE) slid 3.0% for the month, making it the weakest sector. Financials (XLF) was the only other sector that was down in April, losing 0.8%.

The broad market Wilshire 5000 (W5000) rose 1.5% this week to close at 24,878.48. The index also regained the ground above its 50-day moving average after gapping up strongly at Monday’s open. Round-number resistance may be developing at the 25,000 level, however. To the downside, there is the 50-day moving average at 24,615.21, followed by the 24,575 to 24,600 level, which would be where the index fills in Monday’s gap. For the month, the Wilshire 5000 was up 1.0%.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) posted another strong week, climbing 2.3% to 6,047.61. This week marked the first time the index breached the 6,000 mark, a full 17 years after reaching 5,000 during the dot-com boom. The Wall Street Journal offered up some interesting facts regarding Nasdaq 6000:

  • It took the Nasdaq 46 years to close above 6,000 since its inception in 1971. In comparison, it took the Dow Jones industrial average just over 100 years to first close above 6000, from May 26, 1896, to October 14, 1996.
  • The Nasdaq Composite took 4,308 trading days between the fifth and sixth 1,000-point milestones, the longest 1,000-point run since the very first close above 1000 from inception (6,171 trading days).
  • Besides the very first close above 1000, the Dow has never had a 1,000-point run take longer than 3,573 trading days, compared with the Nasdaq’s 4,308 trading days between 5000 and 6000 points.
  • It took the Dow 6,043 trading days between its 1,000- and 6,000-point milestones, while it took the Nasdaq Composite 5,482 trading days. In comparison, it took the Dow 5,129 trading days to go from 6000 to its recent 21,0000-point milestones.

To the downside, we look for round-number support at the 6,000 mark. Below that is the 5,920 level, which would fill in Monday upward gap. And below that is the 50-day moving average at 5,879.47.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) index of smaller stocks gained 1.5% this week to close at 1,400.43. The index moved above its 50-day moving average on Monday and briefly broke above resistance around 1,410. In fact, the index set a new all-time high close on Thursday at 1,419.43 before shedding 1.2% on Friday. For April, the small-cap index climbed 1.0%.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) plummeted 26.0% this week to 10.82. For the month, Wall Street’s “fear gauge” lost 12.5%.

Computerized Investing Market Dashboard Indicators

This week, one of the CI Market Dashboard Indicators triggered a new bullish signal, shifting from neutral. However, none of the Dashboard indicators triggered confirming bearish or bullish signals this week.

Here is a recap of the Market Dashboard indicators for this week:

  • The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) climbed 1.3% this week to $119.47. For the 25th week in a row, the ETF closed above its 100-day moving average. Therefore, this indicator remains bullish. The 100-day moving average of IYY's closing price ended the week at 115.86. The spread between the IYY closing price and the moving average stands at +3.1%. As long as the weekly closing price of IYY ends the week above its 100-day moving average in a “meaningful” way, this indicator will remain bullish. If IYY was to close the week with meaningful separation below its 100-day moving average, the indicator would trigger a new bearish signal. If the weekly closing price of IYY and its 100-day moving average are basically the same, the indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.
  • The MACD of IYY ended the week with clear upside separation with its signal line. Having creating positive separation between the MACD and signal lines this week, this indicator has triggered a new bullish signal, switching from neutral. The MACD of IYY stands at +0.453 while the signal line is at +0.224. As long as the MACD continues to end the week with clear separation with its signal line to the upside, this indicator will remain bullish. If the MACD was to end the week below its signal line with meaningful separation, this would trigger a new bearish signal. If the MACD was to end the week without “meaningful” separation between it and its signal line, this would trigger a new neutral signal.
  • The percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average ended the week at 61.32, up from 55.37 a week ago. The signal for this indicator will remain bearish until August 25, 2017. If there is not a confirming bearish signal before then, the signal will go “stale” on that date and revert to neutral. A confirming bearish signal would occur if the indicator were to rise above the 75% level and fall back below it. This would push the “stale date” back six months from the date of the confirming bearish signal. Alternatively, if the indicator reading falls below the 25% bullish threshold and rises above it, this would trigger a new bullish signal.
  • The NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA) ended the week at 67.82, up from 65.2 the week before. This indicator will remain bearish until August 25, 2017, on which date the signal with go “stale” and revert to neutral. The “stale date” would be pushed back if a confirming bearish signal was generated before that date. This would happen if the indicator rises above the 70% bearish threshold and then starts to decline. Alternatively, the indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the 30% bullish threshold and then rebound.
  • The component indicators of the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator are both flashing bullish signals this week. Therefore, this composite indicator remains bullish for the second week in a row. The first indicator used by the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and its five-day exponential moving average. $NASI once again ended the week above its moving average, which is bullish for this component indicator. $NASI ended the week at +120.81 versus the moving average at +57.92. The second indicator used for the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the MACD of $NASI. The MACD line ended the week above the signal line with “meaningful” separation between the two. This is a bullish signal for this component indicator. The MACD of $NASI is +3.61 while the signal line is -26.155. The NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator will remain bullish if the two component indicators are both flashing bullish signals. This composite indicator would trigger a new bearish signal if the two component indicators are both flashing bearish signals. The indicator would trigger a new neutral signal if the two component indicators are not in agreement.
  • AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment jumped 12.3-percentage points this week to 38.0%. This is the biggest one-week increase in bullish sentiment since November 10 and the highest reading in nine weeks. This indicator will remain bullish until May 17, 2017. If there is not another confirming bullish signal before then, the current bullish signal will go “stale” and revert to neutral. A confirming bullish signal would occur if the reading falls below 25% and then climbs back above it. If there is a confirming bullish signal before May 17, 2017, the “stale date” would be pushed back six months. Alternatively, a new bearish signal would be triggered if the reading rises above the 50% bearish threshold and then falls back below it.

For the week ended April 28, 2017, four CI Market Dashboard indicators are bullish, three are neutral and two are bearish.

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