Market Dashboard

Last updated on 6/23/2017

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iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover
Bullish
Latest Analysis →
Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs
Neutral
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NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation
Bearish
Latest Analysis →
MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)
Bearish
Latest Analysis →
Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average
Bearish
Latest Analysis →
AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage
Bullish
Latest Analysis →
NYSE New Highs/New Lows
Neutral
Latest Analysis →
NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure
Bearish
Latest Analysis →
Shiller CAPE
Neutral
Latest Analysis →

Analysis: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 6/23/2017

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) climbed 0.4% this week to close at $122.44. The ETF notched a new record close on Monday and is now just 0.5% below that mark.

For the 33rd week in a row, the ETF closed above its 100-day moving average. Therefore, this indicator remains BULLISH.

The 100-day moving average of IYY's closing price ended the week at 118.97, up from 118.57 a week ago. The spread between the IYY closing price and the moving average stands at +2.9%, unchanged from last week.

As long as the weekly closing price of IYY ends the week above its 100-day moving average in a “meaningful” way, this indicator will remain BULLISH. If IYY was to close the week with meaningful separation below its 100-day moving average, the indicator would trigger a new bearish signal. If the weekly closing price of IYY and its 100-day moving average are basically the same, the indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The MACD of IYY ended the week clearly below its signal line.

Therefore, this indicator remains BEARISH for the second week in a row.

The MACD of IYY stands at +0.586 while the signal line is at +0.658.

As long as the MACD ends the week clearly below its signal line, this indicator will remain BEARISH. If the MACD was to end the week with clear separation with its signal line to the upside, this indicator would trigger a new bullish signal. If the MACD was to end the week basically in line with its signal line, this indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: NYSE New Highs/New Lows

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 6/23/2017

The net number of NYSE stocks hitting a new 52-week high at the close of this week compared to the number of new lows ended this week at +71, up from +57 a week ago.

However, this indicator remains NEUTRAL.

This indicator will trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the -750 level from positive territory and start to recover, or if the reading experiences a peak-to-trough decline of 750 points or more over a 10-trading-day period and then begins to rebound. The 10-day peak-to-trough spread for this indicator is currently 221 (192 – -29).

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 6/23/2017

The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching a new 52-week high this week rose to 11.73% from last week’s reading of 11.19%.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL since the reading did not fall from above the 25% bearish threshold this week.

There were 1,533 NYSE stocks posting gains this week compared to 1,490 a week ago. In contrast, 1,556 stocks ended the week with a loss. The ratio of winners to losers is currently 0.99, ticking upward from 0.94 a week ago.

There were 368 NYSE stocks that closed the week at a new 52-week high, up from 351 the week before. By means of comparison, 187 NYSE stocks closed this week at a new 52-week low. This is the highest number of the year.

This indicator remains NEUTRAL. The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs needs to rise above the 25% bearish threshold and then fall below it to trigger a bearish signal. The last time the reading was above the 25% bearish threshold was May 24, 2013. The next week the reading fell below 25%, triggering a bearish signal. The indicator reverted to neutral six months later, on November 21, 2013, having failed to generate another confirming bearish signal. There is no bullish threshold for the lower range of this indicator.

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average ended the week at 57.44, down from 61.41 at the close of last week.

This indicator remains BEARISH.

The signal for this indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017. If there is not a confirming bearish signal before then, the signal will go “stale” on that date and revert to neutral. A confirming bearish signal would occur if the indicator were to rise above the 75% level and fall back below it. This would push the “stale date” back six months from the date of the confirming bearish signal. Alternatively, if the indicator reading falls below the 25% bullish threshold and rises above it, this would trigger a new bullish signal.

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Analysis: NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA) ended the week at 63.53, slightly lower than last week’s reading of 63.98.

This indicator remains BEARISH.

This indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017, on which date the signal with go “stale” and revert to neutral. The “stale date” would be pushed back if a confirming bearish signal was generated before that date. This would happen if the indicator rises above the 70% bearish threshold and then starts to decline. Alternatively, the indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the 30% bullish threshold and then rebound.

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Analysis: NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The component indicators of the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator ended this week flashing bearish signals.

This means that this indicator has triggered a new BEARISH signal, switching from neutral.

The first indicator used by the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and its five-day exponential moving average. When the $NASI is above its moving average line, this is bullish, while readings below the moving average line are bearish. Once again, $NASI ended the week below the moving average, which is BEARISH for this component indicator. $NASI ended the week at +132.57 versus the moving average at +138.36.

The second indicator used for the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the MACD of $NASI. When the MACD is above the signal line, this is considered bullish, whereas MACD readings that are below the signal line are bearish. This week, the MACD line moved below the signal line and remained there at week’s end. This bearish crossover triggered a new BEARISH signal for this component indicator. The MACD of $NASI is +2614.59 while the signal line is +19.765.

This composite indicator will remain BEARISH as long as the component indicators are both flashing bearish signals. This composite indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the two component indicators both were both flashing bullish signals. This indicator would trigger a new neutral signal if the two component indicators were not in agreement.

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Analysis: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 6/23/2017

AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment ticked upward by 0.4 percentage points this week to 32.7%.

This indicator remains BULLISH for the fourth consecutive week.

This indicator will remain BULLISH until November 30. If the indicator triggers a confirming bullish signal by falling below 25% and then rising above it, the “stale date” would be pushed back six months from the date of the confirming bullish signal. If there has not been a confirming bullish signal by November 30, the bullish signal will go “stale” and revert to neutral. Alternatively, a new bearish signal would be triggered if the reading rises above the 50% bearish threshold and then falls back below it.

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Analysis: Shiller CAPE

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 6/23/2017

The Shiller CAPE ended the week at 29.87, up from 29.81 a week ago.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL.

With the median historical CAPE standing at 16.14, this week's reading is between the bearish threshold of 32.28 (twice the historical median) and the bullish threshold of 8.07 (one-half the historical median).

If the Shiller CAPE reading were to cross the bearish threshold (32.28) to the upside, the indicator would trigger a bearish signal. Currently, the Shiller CAPE is 7.5% below the bearish threshold.

Alternatively, if the CAPE reading were to fall below the bullish threshold (8.07), which is one-half the historical median level, the indicator would trigger a bullish signal. The CAPE would need to fall 73.0% to trigger a new bullish signal.

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Analysis: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 6/23/2017

The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) climbed 0.4% this week to close at $122.44. The ETF notched a new record close on Monday and is now just 0.5% below that mark.

For the 33rd week in a row, the ETF closed above its 100-day moving average. Therefore, this indicator remains BULLISH.

The 100-day moving average of IYY's closing price ended the week at 118.97, up from 118.57 a week ago. The spread between the IYY closing price and the moving average stands at +2.9%, unchanged from last week.

As long as the weekly closing price of IYY ends the week above its 100-day moving average in a “meaningful” way, this indicator will remain BULLISH. If IYY was to close the week with meaningful separation below its 100-day moving average, the indicator would trigger a new bearish signal. If the weekly closing price of IYY and its 100-day moving average are basically the same, the indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The MACD of IYY ended the week clearly below its signal line.

Therefore, this indicator remains BEARISH for the second week in a row.

The MACD of IYY stands at +0.586 while the signal line is at +0.658.

As long as the MACD ends the week clearly below its signal line, this indicator will remain BEARISH. If the MACD was to end the week with clear separation with its signal line to the upside, this indicator would trigger a new bullish signal. If the MACD was to end the week basically in line with its signal line, this indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.

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Analysis: NYSE New Highs/New Lows

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 6/23/2017

The net number of NYSE stocks hitting a new 52-week high at the close of this week compared to the number of new lows ended this week at +71, up from +57 a week ago.

However, this indicator remains NEUTRAL.

This indicator will trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the -750 level from positive territory and start to recover, or if the reading experiences a peak-to-trough decline of 750 points or more over a 10-trading-day period and then begins to rebound. The 10-day peak-to-trough spread for this indicator is currently 221 (192 – -29).

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 6/23/2017

The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching a new 52-week high this week rose to 11.73% from last week’s reading of 11.19%.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL since the reading did not fall from above the 25% bearish threshold this week.

There were 1,533 NYSE stocks posting gains this week compared to 1,490 a week ago. In contrast, 1,556 stocks ended the week with a loss. The ratio of winners to losers is currently 0.99, ticking upward from 0.94 a week ago.

There were 368 NYSE stocks that closed the week at a new 52-week high, up from 351 the week before. By means of comparison, 187 NYSE stocks closed this week at a new 52-week low. This is the highest number of the year.

This indicator remains NEUTRAL. The percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs needs to rise above the 25% bearish threshold and then fall below it to trigger a bearish signal. The last time the reading was above the 25% bearish threshold was May 24, 2013. The next week the reading fell below 25%, triggering a bearish signal. The indicator reverted to neutral six months later, on November 21, 2013, having failed to generate another confirming bearish signal. There is no bullish threshold for the lower range of this indicator.

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Analysis: Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average ended the week at 57.44, down from 61.41 at the close of last week.

This indicator remains BEARISH.

The signal for this indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017. If there is not a confirming bearish signal before then, the signal will go “stale” on that date and revert to neutral. A confirming bearish signal would occur if the indicator were to rise above the 75% level and fall back below it. This would push the “stale date” back six months from the date of the confirming bearish signal. Alternatively, if the indicator reading falls below the 25% bullish threshold and rises above it, this would trigger a new bullish signal.

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Analysis: NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA) ended the week at 63.53, slightly lower than last week’s reading of 63.98.

This indicator remains BEARISH.

This indicator will remain BEARISH until August 25, 2017, on which date the signal with go “stale” and revert to neutral. The “stale date” would be pushed back if a confirming bearish signal was generated before that date. This would happen if the indicator rises above the 70% bearish threshold and then starts to decline. Alternatively, the indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the 30% bullish threshold and then rebound.

CLOSE

Analysis: NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation

Indicator: Bearish ↓

Posted: 6/23/2017

The component indicators of the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator ended this week flashing bearish signals.

This means that this indicator has triggered a new BEARISH signal, switching from neutral.

The first indicator used by the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and its five-day exponential moving average. When the $NASI is above its moving average line, this is bullish, while readings below the moving average line are bearish. Once again, $NASI ended the week below the moving average, which is BEARISH for this component indicator. $NASI ended the week at +132.57 versus the moving average at +138.36.

The second indicator used for the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the MACD of $NASI. When the MACD is above the signal line, this is considered bullish, whereas MACD readings that are below the signal line are bearish. This week, the MACD line moved below the signal line and remained there at week’s end. This bearish crossover triggered a new BEARISH signal for this component indicator. The MACD of $NASI is +2614.59 while the signal line is +19.765.

This composite indicator will remain BEARISH as long as the component indicators are both flashing bearish signals. This composite indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the two component indicators both were both flashing bullish signals. This indicator would trigger a new neutral signal if the two component indicators were not in agreement.

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Analysis: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage

Indicator: Bullish ↑

Posted: 6/23/2017

AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment ticked upward by 0.4 percentage points this week to 32.7%.

This indicator remains BULLISH for the fourth consecutive week.

This indicator will remain BULLISH until November 30. If the indicator triggers a confirming bullish signal by falling below 25% and then rising above it, the “stale date” would be pushed back six months from the date of the confirming bullish signal. If there has not been a confirming bullish signal by November 30, the bullish signal will go “stale” and revert to neutral. Alternatively, a new bearish signal would be triggered if the reading rises above the 50% bearish threshold and then falls back below it.

CLOSE

Analysis: Shiller CAPE

Indicator: Neutral ↔

Posted: 6/23/2017

The Shiller CAPE ended the week at 29.87, up from 29.81 a week ago.

However, the indicator remains NEUTRAL.

With the median historical CAPE standing at 16.14, this week's reading is between the bearish threshold of 32.28 (twice the historical median) and the bullish threshold of 8.07 (one-half the historical median).

If the Shiller CAPE reading were to cross the bearish threshold (32.28) to the upside, the indicator would trigger a bearish signal. Currently, the Shiller CAPE is 7.5% below the bearish threshold.

Alternatively, if the CAPE reading were to fall below the bullish threshold (8.07), which is one-half the historical median level, the indicator would trigger a bullish signal. The CAPE would need to fall 73.0% to trigger a new bullish signal.

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Overview: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) 100-day Moving Average Crossover

The IYY is an ETF tracking the performance of the Dow ones U.S. Index and holds roughly 1,300 stocks. The Dow Jones U.S. Index is designed to represent approximately 95% of the investable U.S. stock market and is a market-cap-weighted index. Since it is a market-cap-weighted index, its performance is dominated by the largest stocks traded on U.S. exchanges. However, it offers broader market exposure than the S&P 500 Large Cap Index or the Dow Jones Industrial Average. In addition, our analysis indicates that the Dow Jones U.S. Index is slightly more responsive to changes in market direction relative to other indexes.

Moving averages are the simplest trend indicators. When deciding on the number of periods to use when calculating a moving average, there is a balancing act between timeliness and usefulness. The fewer number of periods you use, the more responsive the moving average is to changing trends. This, in turn, produces better profits in both bull and bear markets. All else equal, IYY closing prices above the moving average line indicate a bullish, upward trend, while IYY closing prices below the moving average line indicate a downward, bearish trend.

However, the downside of using a more responsive moving average, with fewer periods in the calculation, is the greater potential for "whipsaws." A whipsaw occurs when a security's price heads in one direction, but then is followed quickly by a movement in the opposite direction. If your moving average is too responsive, it may generate back-to-back buy/sell signals based in this short-term price movement. Whipsaws are especially common when the market is moving within a trading range (moving sideways). When this happens, moving averages tend to flatten out, increasing the likelihood that the price can close above or below the moving average line in short succession. Acting on these buy and sell signals can result in a string of unprofitable trades and higher trading costs. It is for this reason that we don't rely on only a moving average as in indicator of the market's direction.

A bullish signal is generated when the closing price of IYY rises above the 100-day moving average. A bearish signal is generated when the IYY closing price crosses below the moving average.

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Overview: MACD on iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY)

The moving average convergence/ divergence (MACD) is a trend-following indicator developed by Gerald Appel. It is calculated by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA (periods can be days, weeks, months, etc.). Exponential moving averages place greater weighting on more recent prices, making them more reactive to recent price moves than simple moving averages, which place equal weighting on each periodic price.

This indicator also consists of a "signal line," which is a nine-period moving average of the MACD. The indicator generates buy and sell signals when the MACD line crosses the signal line—a crossover from below is a buy and a crossover from above is a sell.

Since the MACD makes use of moving averages, like the IYY moving average crossover indicator, it is sometimes prone to generating false short-term signals. This again highlights the importance of using multiple indicators when determining when to buy and sell.

Beyond using crossovers between the signal line and MACD to identify possible buy and sell points, traders also look for divergences between the direction of the MACD and the underlying security or index. When you see the MACD making new highs while the underlying security or index is falling, this points to a possible reversal in the index or security.

A bullish signal is generated when the MACD line crosses above the signal line; a bearish signal is generated when the MACD line crosses below the signal line. On those rare occasions where the MACD line and signal line are basically equal, the indicator is neutral.

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Overview: NYSE New Highs/New Lows

The NYSE High Highs/New Lows indicator ($NYHL) is the difference between the number of daily new highs and the number of new daily lows for the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). An increase from extremely negative readings is a possible indication of a market reversal to the upside.

A bullish signal is generated when the $NYHL falls to -750 or lower and then begins to increase. Alternatively, if the $NYHL declines by 750 points or more from a reading above zero and then begins to increase, this too is a bullish signal. Otherwise, the indicator is neutral. The last time $NYHL registered a value of -750 or lower was October 4, 2011, when it fell to -1,192. Dating back to the start of 1990, we have not observed a week in which $NYHL fell by at least 750 without also registering a value of -750 or lower. Therefore, we have extended this out so that if, at the end of trading for a week, $NYHL has fallen by 750 points or more from a positive reading in the preceding 10 trading days, the indicator triggers a bullish signal. The last time this happened was the week ended May 7, 2010. Over the 10 trading days ended May 7, the $NYHL had fallen from +665 on April 26 to -166 on May 6, for a decline of 831 points.

The indicator will also move from a bullish signal to a neutral signal if no new bullish signals are generated in the six months following an initial bullish signal.

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Overview: Percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs

One drawback of the NYSE New Highs/New Lows indicator is that a reversal from an extremely positive number is not a reliable indicator of possible market reversal to the downside. An alternative is to look at the percentage of NYSE stocks hitting a new high each week. When this percentage reaches extreme high levels and then begins to fall, this is an indication that a market top has been reached.

This indicator is bearish when the percentage of NYSE stocks reaching new highs is 25% or greater but is declining. When the indicator is below 25% or above 25% and still rising, it is neutral. Once a bearish signal is generated, that signal will remain in effect for six months, unless a confirming signal in the same direction is generated, at which point the date will be reset (or if a signal in the opposite direction is generated). If no confirming bearish signal is generated over the following six months after an initial bearish signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: Percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average

Extreme overbought or oversold conditions in the market often are precursors to a reversal. When a large percentage of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, this can indicate an overbought condition, with an increased chance of a market reversal to the downside. Alternatively, when a small percentage of stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average, this potentially oversold condition may signal an upcoming reversal to the upside.

The indicator is bullish when the when the percentage drops to 25% or lower and then begins to rise. Likewise, a bearish signal occurs when the percentage reaches 75% or above and then begins to decline. The indicator is neutral when neither of these conditions is being met—the percentage is below 25% and falling; the percentage is above 75% and rising; or the indicator is between 25% and 75% without a recent reversal from extreme levels. Once a bullish or bearish signal is generated, that signal will remain in effect for six months, unless a confirming signal in the same direction is generated, at which point the date will be reset (or if a signal in the opposite direction is generated). If no new signal is generated over the following six months after a signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: NYSE Bullish Percentage Point & Figure

The NYSE bullish percentage (NYSBP) indicator tallies the number of NYSE stocks whose point & figure charts are currently indicating a buy signal and expresses the number as a percentage of all NYSE stocks. When this percentage reaches extremely high levels and begins to decline, the market may be headed for a reversal to the downside. Likewise, when this percentage begins to rise from extremely low levels, the market may be forming a bottom and preparing to reverse to the upside.

A bullish signal is generated when the bullish percentage falls to 30% or below and starts to turn upward. A bearish signal is generated when the percentage peaks above 70% and begins to turn downward. The indicator is neutral if neither of these conditions is met—the indicator is below 30% and falling; above 70% and is rising; or the indicator is between 30% and 70% without a recent reversal from extreme levels. Once a bullish or bearish signal is generated, that signal will remain in effect for six months, unless a confirming signal in the same direction is generated, at which point the date will be reset (or if a signal in the opposite direction is generated). If no new signal is generated over the following six months after a signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation

The NASDAQ summation index (NASI) consists of two parts. The first is the difference between the number of advancing stocks and the number of declining stocks in the Nasdaq composite index. The second is the five-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the summation (NASI) line. When the NASI line crosses above the EMA, this is considered a buy signal, while a crossover to the downside is a sell signal. Adding a MACD of IYY can serve as a confirmation of the crossover buy and sell signals on the NASI. A NASI buy signal is confirmed when the MACD line crosses above its signal line; likewise a NASI sell signal is confirmed when the MACD crosses below its signal line.

Furthermore, when both the NASI and MACD are showing positive divergence with the NASDAQ composite—reaching new highs while the index is declining—this can be viewed as a strong buy signal. Likewise, negative divergence with both indicators is considered a strong sell signal.

A bullish signal is generated when the NASI rises above its five-day EMA and is confirmed by the MACD crossing above its signal line on or near the same day. A bearish signal is generated when the index falls below the five-day EMA and the MACD has a confirming sell signal on or near the same day. If neither of these conditions is being met, the indicator is neutral.

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Overview: AAII Investor Sentiment Survey Bullish Percentage

Investor sentiment is often used as a contrarian indicator—individual investors tend to be most bearish at market bottoms and most bullish at market tops.

One sentiment indicator that is widely followed by professional traders and the financial press is AAII's Investor Sentiment Survey. Each week, AAII members can vote online as to where they think the market is going over the next six months—up (bullish), down (bearish), or sideways (neutral). The results are published each Thursday at the AAII website (www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey).

A bullish signal is generated when the percentage bullish reading drops to 25% and then rises the next week; a bearish signal is generated when the percentage bullish reading rises to 50% and then drops the following week. If neither of these conditions is being met, the indicator is neutral. In addition, if no new confirming signal is generated within six months after a bullish or bearish signal is generated, or if a signal is the opposite direction is not generated within six months of a bullish or bearish signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Overview: Shiller CAPE

The Shiller CAPE comes from Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller, the Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University. CAPE is short for cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio. It is cyclically adjusted in the sense that the earnings used in the calculation are averaged over a longer interval of time; Shiller uses 10 years. Shiller's research shows that real price divided by the 10-year average of earnings does actually help predict the stock market. The numerator of the CAPE is the real "inflation-adjusted" price level of the S&P 500 index.

Shiller believes that the stock market is somewhat predictable, but he admits that the CAPE ratio does not predict what is going to happen next year very well. Unlike the other indicators used in the CI Market Dashboard, which are short-term in nature, the CAPE is a long-term indicator. The CAPE predicts what will happen over the next five or 10 years. In other words, when prices are high relative to 10-year average earnings, then that suggests that prices will come down, but you don't know exactly when. You might have to wait five years or 10 years for them to come down. For patient, long-term investors, the CAPE is an indicator of value.

For the purpose of our market dashboard, a bearish signal is generated when the CAPE rises to 100% or more than its historical median or midpoint value. A bullish signal is generated when the CAPE falls 50% or more below the historical median. The indicator is neutral when neither of these conditions is being met. In addition, if no new confirming signal is generated within six months after a bullish or bearish signal is generated, or if a signal is the opposite direction is not generated within six months of a bullish or bearish signal is generated, the indicator will revert back to neutral.

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Market Dashboard Commentary

By Wayne A. Thorp, CFA
6/23/2017
There will not be a Market Dashboard update next weekend. On behalf of everyone at AAII, have a safe and enjoyable Fourth of July holiday.

Weekly Market Summary

A strong week by health-care stocks boosted the major U.S. indexes even as energy continued its downward slide. Shares of pharmaceutical companies and biotechnology firms posted gains this week, following some encouraging data on drug development. Health-care companies joined the climb, including Thursday when Senate Republicans unveiled their plans to overhaul the Affordable Care Act.

Energy companies and equipment makers fell in recent days as U.S.-traded crude oil tumbled since lower oil prices can hurt their profit margins. Investors are watching the energy market closely since it has been critical for the earnings recovery in the U.S. The sector is expected to account for nearly half of the S&P 500’s earnings growth in the second quarter, according to FactSet. U.S.-traded crude oil declined 4.4% for the week and entered a bear market, having fallen more than 20% from a recent high in February.

Technology stocks kicked off the week by posting their biggest gains of the year on Monday. This, in turn, boosted the Dow Jones industrial average to it biggest daily gain in a month and a new record close. The S&P 500 also notched a new all-time high as it recorded its biggest gain in almost two months. The Nasdaq Composite turned in its biggest one-day advance since November 7.

U.S. stock indexes backtracked Tuesday as oil prices fell to their lowest levels since September, pressuring the shares of energy companies. Energy stocks in the S&P 500 fell 1.2%, adding to the losses of the worst-performing sector of the year. The fall came on the heels of fresh worries of an oversupply of oil.

The slide in energy stocks continued Wednesday, which pulled the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 lower. However, gains in health-related companies lifted the Nasdaq to a daily win. Health-care stocks in the S&P 500 rose 1.2% while the Nasdaq added 0.7%.

Health-care stocks posted strong gains on Thursday after Senate Republicans unveiled their plans to overhaul the Affordable Care Act. The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index posted its highest close since January 2016. The rest of the market was muted on Thursday, as the Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 both fell less than 0.1%.

Friday once again saw U.S. shares move in a narrow range. The S&P 500 index rose 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.5%. The Dow Jones industrial average ticked downward by 0.1% for the day.

Major Indexes

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) eked out a 0.05% gain for the week to close at 21,394.76. After hitting a record close on Monday, the blue-chip index fell each of the next four trading sessions. The index filled in the gap it created at Monday’s open so we wait to see if that turns into support. Below that is round-number support at 21,000 as well as the 50-day moving average at 21,011,83.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) ended the week up 0.2% to 2,438.30. The large-cap index posted bookend gains this week, with three losing sessions in between. The index broke out of its trading range on Monday but fell back into it. The range has tightened recently though, as support seems to be developing around 2,435. Below that is round-number support at 2,400 and the 50-day moving average at 2,401.78.

Once again, breadth in the market was decidedly negative this week, with only three of the 10 S&P Sector SPDRs posting gains, according to SectorSPDR.com. As we mentioned previously, health care (XLV) enjoyed a strong week, posting a 3.6% gain. Technology (XLK) also bucked the broader trend, adding 1.9%. Energy (XLE) dropped 2.9% for the week, while financials (XLF) and Utilities (XLU) also fell 1.7%.

The broad market Wilshire 5000 (W5000) gained 0.3% this week to 25,349.12. On Monday, the index posted a new all-time close but retreated from that level on Tuesday. The index briefly broke through resistance at 25,400 but we still view that as a near-term roadblock. Minor support may be developing around 25,276, but more meaningful support should exist at 25,000 and at the 50-day moving average (24,992.83).

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (COMP) climbed 1.8% this week to 6,265.25, snapping its two-week losing streak. To the downside, we look to the 50-day moving average at 6,122.03 for initial support as well as round-number support at 6,100, which held during the recent pullback.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) index of smaller stocks gained 0.6% this week to close at 1,414.78. The index closed at 1,399.25 on Thursday but we still look to the 1,400 level for initial support. Below that is the 50-day moving average at 1,393.03.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 4.4% this week to 10.02.

Computerized Investing Market Dashboard Indicators

This week, one of the CI Market Dashboard Indicators triggered a new bearish signal, switching from neutral. However, none of the Dashboard indicators triggered confirming bearish or bullish signals this week.

Here is a recap of the Market Dashboard indicators for this week:

  • The iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (IYY) climbed 0.4% this week to close at $122.44. For the 33rd week in a row, the ETF closed above its 100-day moving average. Therefore, this indicator remains bullish. The 100-day moving average of IYY's closing price ended the week at 118.97, up from 118.57 a week ago. The spread between the IYY closing price and the moving average stands at +2.9%, unchanged from last week. As long as the weekly closing price of IYY ends the week above its 100-day moving average in a “meaningful” way, this indicator will remain bullish. If IYY was to close the week with meaningful separation below its 100-day moving average, the indicator would trigger a new bearish signal. If the weekly closing price of IYY and its 100-day moving average are basically the same, the indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.
  • The MACD of IYY ended the week clearly below its signal line. Therefore, this indicator remains bearish for the second week in a row. The MACD of IYY stands at +0.586 while the signal line is at +0.658. As long as the MACD ends the week clearly below its signal line, this indicator will remain bearish. If the MACD was to end the week with clear separation with its signal line to the upside, this indicator would trigger a new bullish signal. If the MACD was to end the week basically in line with its signal line, this indicator would trigger a new neutral signal.
  • The percentage of NYSE Stocks Above 50-day Moving Average ended the week at 57.44, down from 61.41 at the close of last week. The signal for this indicator will remain bearish until August 25, 2017. If there is not a confirming bearish signal before then, the signal will go “stale” on that date and revert to neutral. A confirming bearish signal would occur if the indicator were to rise above the 75% level and fall back below it. This would push the “stale date” back six months from the date of the confirming bearish signal. Alternatively, if the indicator reading falls below the 25% bullish threshold and rises above it, this would trigger a new bullish signal.
  • The NYSE Bullish Percentage Index ($BPNYA) ended the week at 63.53, slightly lower than last week’s reading of 63.98. This indicator will remain bearish until August 25, 2017, on which date the signal with go “stale” and revert to neutral. The “stale date” would be pushed back if a confirming bearish signal was generated before that date. This would happen if the indicator rises above the 70% bearish threshold and then starts to decline. Alternatively, the indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the reading was to fall below the 30% bullish threshold and then rebound.
  • The component indicators of the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation composite indicator ended this week flashing bearish signals. This means that this indicator has triggered a new bearish signal, switching from neutral. The first indicator used by the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the Nasdaq Summation Index ($NASI) and its five-day exponential moving average. Once again, $NASI ended the week below the moving average, which is bearish for this component indicator. $NASI ended the week at +132.57 versus the moving average at +138.36. The second indicator used for the NASDAQ Summation Index Moving Average Crossover with MACD Confirmation indicator is the MACD of $NASI. This week, the MACD line moved below the signal line and remained there at week’s end. This bearish crossover triggered a new bearish signal for this component indicator. The MACD of $NASI is +2614.59 while the signal line is +19.765. This composite indicator will remain bearish as long as the component indicators are both flashing bearish signals. This composite indicator would trigger a new bullish signal if the two component indicators both were both flashing bullish signals. This indicator would trigger a new neutral signal if the two component indicators were not in agreement.
  • AAII Investor Bullish Sentiment ticked upward by 0.4 percentage points this week to 32.7%. This indicator will remain bullish until November 30. If the indicator triggers a confirming bullish signal by falling below 25% and then rising above it, the “stale date” would be pushed back six months from the date of the confirming bullish signal. If there has not been a confirming bullish signal by November 30, the bullish signal will go “stale” and revert to neutral. Alternatively, a new bearish signal would be triggered if the reading rises above the 50% bearish threshold and then falls back below it.

For the week ended June 23, 2017, two CI Market Dashboard indicators are bullish, three indicators are neutral and four are bearish.

 

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