Despite Uncertainty, Model Shadow Stock Portfolio Still Positive for 2012
May has taken away much of the stock market gain of the first four months.
This pullback has impacted the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio as well as the general market. The portfolio was up 9.1% for the year as of May 31, 2012, compared to a 5.1% year-to-date return for the S&P 500 index, as measured by the Vanguard 500 Index fund (VFINX). But the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio had been up over 22% for the year in mid-March.
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The stock market hates uncertainty, and uncertainty is with us. In addition to an extension of the eurozone problems because of the government transition in Greece, we have domestic uncertainty as well. The economic picture is not clear. No one knows what the Federal Reserve will do. And election debating points seem to be more important to our government than making decisions about taxes, budgets, Social Security, and Medicare.
Longer-term results and comparisons can be seen in Figure 1 and Table 3. While the pullback in May was disappointing, the portfolio movement for the year-to-date is still upward, and a bit above our average results.
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