Model Shadow Stock Portfolio Contests 2007 for Best Annual Return
The Model Shadow Stock Portfolio is down from its level three months ago as reported in the October 2009 AAII Journal, but is still up 61.1% for the year to date (November 30), as compared with 24.1% for the S&P 500 (as measured by Vanguard 500 Index fund). Comparisons for other time periods and with other indexes are illustrated in Figure 1 and Table 1.
|Annual Rate of Return (%)|
|Shadow Stock Portfolio||14.3||61.1||-50.8||-1.8||29.4||17.9||43.7||73.1||10.8||21.4||-7.7||0.0||-8.9||44.3||22.3||20.7||2.0||32.3|
|S&P 500 (VFINX)||7.6||24.1||-37.0||5.4||15.6||4.8||10.8||28.5||-22.1||-12.0||-9.1||21.1||28.6||33.2||22.9||37.4||1.2||9.9|
|Vanguard Small Cap (NAESX)||8.2||26.2||-36.0||1.2||15.6||7.4||19.9||45.6||-20.0||3.1||-2.7||23.1||-2.6||24.6||18.1||28.7||-0.5||18.7|
|DFA US Micro Cap (DFSCX)||9.9||17.8||-36.7||-5.2||16.2||5.7||18.4||60.7||-13.3||22.8||-3.6||29.8||-7.3||22.8||17.6||34.5||3.1||21.0|
|Data as of 11/30/2009.|
We still have a chance to rival 2003 as our best year ever, but will need a Santa Claus rally to get to +73.1%. By the time you read this, it will be decided. More importantly, we have not yet returned to the 2007 highs—neither the model portfolio nor the general market. At this time, it is hard to think of any driving force that would get us back to 2007 highs in the near term.
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