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Prior Bear Markets: A Poor Guide to Future Newsletter Performance

by Mark Hulbert

The stock bear market that began in October 2007 has been such a traumatic event in the lives of so many investors, that it is likely to dominate investment decision-making for years to come.

Whether that’s a good thing, however, is an open question—I’m not so sure that it is.

That’s because performance in bear markets is a poor guide as to how an adviser or strategy will perform over the long term. And this is true not only because the stock market historically has had an upward bias. It’s also because performance in one bear market is a poor guide to returns in subsequent bear markets.

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Mark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, a newsletter that ranks the performance of investment advisory newsletters. It is published monthly and is located at 5051B Backlick Rd., Annandale, Va. 22003; 703/750-9060.


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