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Comment Posted On-Line to “Bear Market Start May Offer a Strong Finish for Young Investors,” by Christine Fahlund, July 2009 AAII Journal.
While the author’s data analysis is correct, though based on only a small sample size (four samples is not statistically significant), the conclusion seems biased toward promoting equity investments in light of the current downturn.
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An alternative conclusion: Long-term investment results measured at the end of a strong market (1958, 1999) are better than those measured at the end of a weak market (1979, 2008). This conclusion is reinforced by Figure 2, which reverses the sequence; the sequences ending with a bull market provide dramatically better returns.
Paul From Oregon
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