2010 Year-End Screening Review: Across the Board Gains
by Wayne A. Thorp, CFA
Compared to the roller-coaster ride the market has been on the last few years, 2010 was a time for the markets and investors to catch their breath.
In this mid-term election year, the economy stood front and center for voters as well as investors. While the economy has managed to string together five consecutive quarters of growth, the erratic nature of the growth has done little to instill confidence in the market. That—combined with unemployment that remains the highest it has been in decades, the specter of future inflation stemming from government stimulus spending and uncertainty as to whether Bush-era tax cuts will expire at the end of the year—gave investors reason to be cautious.
In this article
- Ranking 2010 Performance
- Top Performer of 2010
- Screens for All Markets: Bull and Bear Market Performers
- Characteristics of Top Strategies
- Impact of Dividends
- Risk-Adjusted Winner
- Calculating Risk-Adjusted Return
- Conclusion
- The AAII Stock Screens
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Year-to-date, through December 10, 2010, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 11% (simple price return, excluding dividends). While that’s less than half the increase seen in 2009, it is still well above the index’s historical average capital appreciation of 7.2% between the beginning of 1950 and the end of 2009. Tempering two years of solid gains is the fact that the S&P 500 still is some 20% below its high of October 2007.
Looking at the 63 stock screens we currently track at AAII.com, 2010 was another successful year, with only three strategies currently down for the year. The median, or midpoint, return of all the screens was 23.0%, compared to a median return of 48.1% for the same group of screens in 2009. Out of the 63 AAII screens, one is having its best year ever—the Oberweis Octagon screen.
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Discussion
The 65.8% Avg Ann’l Risk-Adj Price gain for All Exchange-Listed Stocks seems way too high.
posted over 2 years ago by pympk from California
I agree.
If Table 1 figures are correct then I think Avg Ann'l gain should be 10.5 and risk adjusted should be 8.7.
Can AAII please confirm?
posted over 2 years ago by Bikhod from Illinois
Can the tables be made available as an Excel spreadsheet please?
posted over 2 years ago by Bikhod from Illinois
Thank you for pointing out this error. The Table 1 figures are correct and the Avg Ann'l gain should be 10.5% and the risk-adjusted should be 8.7%.
posted over 2 years ago by Wayne from Illinois
CAN THESE TABLES BE DOWNLOADED AS A .CSV OR XLS OR PDF FILE. THANKS.
posted over 2 years ago by Donald from Tennessee
In the coming days we are revamping the Stock Screens area of AAII.com to include new tables that contain much of the data discussed in this article, which you will be able to download.
posted over 2 years ago by Wayne from Illinois
Paste the following links to your Internet Explorer's address bar and hit enter. It will ask you do you want to open or save the file.
http://www.aaii.com/objects/get/1012.xls
http://www.aaii.com/objects/get/1013.xls
posted over 2 years ago by Ping from California
Why can't I see the entire right side of Table #1? I reloaded the page and it still doesn't come up. I'm using Firefox. Could that be the issue??
posted over 2 years ago by George from Florida
