Briefly Noted
The Bull Turns Two Years Old
The bull market celebrated its second birthday on March 9, 2011. At press time, the S&P 500 was up by nearly 86% from its 2009 lows. Despite the strong rebound, the index had only risen to summer 2008 price levels. More importantly, portfolios for many investors have not fully participated in the rebound.
In this article
- The Bull Turns Two Years Old
- Doctors May Inquire About Your Finances
- Lack of Investor Knowledge an Obstacle for Emerging Markets
- From the Bookshelf
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Does the bull have more room to run, or is it nearing the age where it will start looking like a tired bovine? The historical average suggests the rally may not yet be over. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s Equity Research, calculates that the average bull market has lasted 45 months, based on data going back to 1932. This equates to a sell-by date of November 2012.
The big caveat to this date is that three bull markets since 1949 didn’t even make it to their third birthdays and three others lasted more than six years. In other words, the bull will keep running until it doesn’t, regardless of what other rallies have done.
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