Is the AAII Sentiment Survey a Contrarian Indicator?
Each week, we ask AAII members a simple question: Do they feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)?
We refer to this question as the AAII Sentiment Survey. Since we started polling our members in 1987, our survey has provided insight into the moods of individual investors.
The survey has been become a widely followed measure. Its results are circulated by various organizations and media outlets, including Barron’s and Bloomberg. I have heard directly from, and indirectly of, many market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other financial professionals who follow the survey.
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