Master Strategists for 2007: AAII's Top Stock Screens
by Wayne A. Thorp, CFA
It takes the right moves, clever tactics and perseverance following a grand plan to be a master stock market strategist.
However, the fiercest battle in 2007 was not among the various strategists, but rather against the market itself.
In this article
- The 2007 Master Strategists
- Evaluating Strategy Performance
- Value Master Strategists
- Growth & Value Master Strategists
- Growth Master Strategists
- Behind the 2007 Top Strategy
- The Long-Term Strategist
- Conclusion
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During 2007, over three different three-month periods, the bears clearly took control of the board, with the S&P declining more than 5%. Underlying the bear positions was a deflating real-estate market, which led to a crisis in the sub-prime mortgage industry, as well as increasing unease as to the strength of the U.S. economy. Luckily, the bulls regained control after each market downturn, with a subsequent reversal to somewhat higher levels.
At the time of this writing in mid-December, the S&P 500 has rebounded nearly 7% from its early-December lows. Overall, the S&P 500 is up 6.1% year-to-date through December 7.
However, the fierce competition took its toll: The number of stock screens tracked on AAII.com that have negative returns increased substantially over the prior year, with 17 of the 56 strategies down year-to-date (as of December 7, 2007). This is also a significant increase compared to the mid-year review (in June), when only four screening approaches were down year-to-date. November 2007 was one of the worst months ever for the AAII stock screens, with an average decline of over 6.5%.
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