Model Shadow Stock Portfolio: Up Modestly During an Atypical Year
by James B. Cloonan
After being in negative territory for a number of months, the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio showed a positive return year-to-date as of the end of November.
And after lagging for most of 2011, it finally passed the S&P 500 with a return of 1.5% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.9%, as measured by the Vanguard 500 Index fund (VFINX). Results for the past 19 years can be seen in Figure 1 and Table 2.
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It is hard to get excited about such a small return, particularly in a pre-election year, when the average return on the S&P 500 index since the Great Depression has been 21.7%. But it looks like we may avoid a pre-election year negative return, a scenario that has not occurred since 1931.
The economy seems to be gradually recovering, and if it were not for the problems in Europe, the stock market might have come closer to experiencing at least a normal year. As of early December, there are indications of a positive push that may bring us closer to an average year for the general market, which would be 12.6%.
It has been a year full of problems—political stalemate, unemployment, record bad weather and the euro crises. In addition, the usual government spending spree to win votes gave way to budget concerns. Many feel it is a miracle that the market has performed as well as it has.
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Discussion
This is Jan 6 2012 When do you update portfolio performance and all models?
posted about 1 year ago by Dennis from Utah
Dennis, we update the performance for our three model portfolios on the 15th of each month. Because of the holiday, performance this month may not be updated until Jan 17, however. -Charles Rotblut
posted about 1 year ago by Charles from Illinois
Why do I see SURW as well as other holdings listed as a holding "qualified as of 11/30/11" yet I see no transaction history for this or similar purchases in the 4th qtr of 2011?
How should I maintain current with activity you generate in the portfolio if it is not listed in the transaction file?
posted about 1 year ago by Kevin from Massachusetts
Kevin-The qualified designation means the stock currently meets the purchase requirements for the portfolio. It is a designation for those members who either want to buy fewer than all of the stocks in the portfolio or want to see which stocks currently meet the purchase requirements. It does not mean that more shares were added to the portfolio. -Charles Rotblut, AAII
posted about 1 year ago by Charles from Illinois
I am a new member and want to get started with the stock portfolio. Would it be wise to start by buying the quilifing stocks
posted about 1 year ago by Edward from North Carolina
Hi Edward, the stocks listed as qualifying in the portfolio are the ones most closely match the purchase criteria for the portfolio. We suggest you hold at least 10 of the stocks if you intend to follow the portfolio. More information can be found at http://www.aaii.com/model-portfolios/getting-started. -Charles, AAII
posted about 1 year ago by Charles from Illinois
Hi Edward, the stocks listed as qualifying in the portfolio are the ones that most closely match the purchase criteria for the portfolio. We suggest you hold at least 10 of the stocks if you intend to follow the portfolio. More information can be found at http://www.aaii.com/model-portfolios/getting-started. -Charles, AAII
posted about 1 year ago by Charles from Illinois
Why don't you show the purchase date and price of each issue in Table 1 to provide clearer context for the individual returns ?
posted about 1 year ago by Robin from Florida
Robin, we show transaction data in the Model Portfolios section of the website at http://www.aaii.com/model-portfolios/stock-transaction-history. -Charles Rotblut, AAII
posted about 1 year ago by Charles from Illinois
How often do you add and/or subtract from the Model Shadow Stock Porfolio and what are the dates that we can see the changes on the web site?
posted 12 months ago by John from Michigan
Changes are made to the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio once a quarter. They are posted to the Transaction History page of the Shadow Stock section in the Model Portfolios area around the middle of the month in March, June, September, and December (and are reported in the January, April, July and October issues of the AAII Journal). The posting of changes is usually announced in both the AAII Investor Update email and the Weekly Features email. Go to www.aaii.com/email to subscribe (free to members).
posted 12 months ago by Jean from Illinois
