• First Cut
  • Relative Strength and Positive Surprises

    by John Bajkowski

    Relative Strength And Positive Surprises Splash image

    Relative price strength helps to highlight stocks for which the market has a growing affection. Here, we highlight stocks with strong and improving price momentum coupled with recent positive earnings surprises and upward revisions in earnings estimates.

    The quarterly earnings reporting season allows investors to see whether the expectations of the majority of analysts have been correct, or if adjustments are necessary.

    The stocks that made this issue’s First Cut are domestic, exchange-listed companies that have had a positive quarterly surprise since the beginning of April as well a positive surprise for their prior quarter. These companies are expected by analysts to have positive earnings for their current fiscal year. Also, no analysts have lowered their near-term quarterly or annual earnings estimates during the past month. The First Cut table lists the percentage by which actual reported earnings topped the consensus expectation. The table also shows the amount by which analysts have recently adjusted their near-term expectations.

    Momentum investors look for short-term relative strength to be greater than long-term relative strength. To filter for price strength, companies were required to have a relative price strength rank of 50% or higher over the past 52-week period. The relative strength rank indicates how a company’s stock price has performed relative to all other stocks. A rank of 98% indicates that a stock has outperformed 98% of all stocks. Furthermore, the First Cut Screen looks for stocks with relative strength percentage rank for the last 13 weeks that is better or equal to their 52-week relative strength rank. The 30 stocks with greatest relative strength rank over the last 13 weeks made the First Cut.

    The forward price-earnings ratios (price divided by expected earnings per share) provides a feel for the valuation levels of these stocks, while the 52-week high and low price indicates the range of price movement relative to th

    —John Bajkowski, President of AAII

     

    Company (Ticker) Relative Strgth
    % Rank
    Qtrly
    EPS
    Surprise
    (%)
    Monthly EPS
    EPS Est
    P/E Ratio
    (Est EPS)
    (X)
    Share
    Price
    (5/13)
    ($)
    52-Week
    (High-Low)
    Price Range
    ($)
     
     
    13-Wk
    (%)
    52-Wk
    (%)
    Curr Qtr
    (%)
    Curr Yr
    (%)
     
    Description
    Weight Watchers Int'l (WTW) 98 98 12.4 5.6 7.0 20.9 82.69 (83.60-24.47) weight mgmt servs
    Coleman Cable, Inc. (CCIX) 96 95 76.2 17.6 33.3 8.9 11.89 (12.89-4.48) wire & cable prods
    Merit Medical Systems (MMSI) 96 84 23.4 7.0 8.9 21.9 19.04 (19.94-11.38) medical prods
    Herbalife Ltd. (HLF) 96 96 18.3 4.5 6.0 18.5 106.75 (108.49-42.33) weight & sport prods
    Crawford & Company (CRD.B) 95 91 43.8 54.5 25.0 10.2 6.65 (6.73-2.35) insur claims mgmt
    Newpark Resources (NR) 95 70 22.1 16.5 19.0 13.3 8.88 (9.91-5.12) oil & gas
    Select Comfort Corp. (SCSS) 95 88 61.3 16.0 26.1 19.1 17.20 (17.86-4.92) beds
    TeleNav, Inc. (TNAV) 95 87 51.7 19.0 14.7 15.4 15.17 (15.47-4.65) navigation servs
    WellCare Health Plans (WCG) 95 92 302.4 16.0 24.6 14.5 50.18 (50.67-22.25) managed care servs
    Aaron's, Inc. (AAN) 94 90 8.5 5.7 5.0 15.5 27.59 (29.29-13.00) retail consumer prods
    Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) 94 91 22.1 4.9 6.4 15.3 23.53 (23.61-10.66) pizza delivery chain
    Kadant Inc. (KAI) 94 80 28.8 27.1 28.2 14.1 30.66 (32.99-15.97) papermaking
    B&G Foods, Inc. (BGS) 93 90 3.1 4.2 2.9 17.2 18.07 (19.60-9.74) shelf-stable food prods
    Encore Capital Group (ECPG) 93 84 2.5 1.8 1.9 13.0 30.81 (31.85-16.70) consumer debt buyer
    NewMarket Corporation (NEU) 93 90 21.8 5.5 7.2 12.1 174.77 (190.76-84.57) chem & RE holding co.
    Kinetic Concepts, Inc. (KCI) 90 81 8.6 9.9 8.8 11.7 58.73 (59.59-31.84) medical technology
    Astronics Corp. (ATRO) 89 88 40.6 21.1 16.5 16.1 27.47 (27.98-13.18) aerospace prods
    Kulicke and Soffa (KLIC) 89 89 50.0 78.1 31.7 6.7 12.18 (12.72-5.27) tools for semiconds
    LMI Aerospace, Inc. (LMIA) 89 58 1.6 2.0 3.1 13.5 21.80 (22.54-13.50) aircraft design engineer
    State Bancorp, Inc. (STBC) 89 72 19.0 10.1 3.6 21.4 12.96 (13.25-8.08) bank holding co.
    Sun Hydraulics Corp. (SNHY) 89 87 25.3 14.7 17.8 21.6 47.57 (54.34-21.91) hydraulic sys parts
    Iconix Brand Group (ICON) 87 81 8.7 8.6 6.1 14.8 24.52 (25.29-13.18) brand mgmt
    Key Energy Services (KEG) 87 84 32.4 39.0 34.7 18.3 15.37 (18.93-7.86) servs for oil & gas prod
    Lydall, Inc. (LDL) 87 69 300.0 27.3 0.0 17.3 10.55 (11.39-6.51) filtration media
    CNO Financial Group (CNO) 86 70 9.8 1.8 3.0 10.6 7.61 (8.34-4.58) insurance holding co.
    Graco Inc. (GGG) 86 81 39.9 21.4 18.4 20.7 49.72 (52.10-27.05) fluid handling solutions
    MAXIMUS, Inc. (MMS) 86 78 11.5 2.0 3.6 19.7 83.63 (85.14-53.52) business servs to gov't
    Houston Wire & Cable (HWCC) 85 78 63.6 34.2 36.6 15.1 16.15 (18.00-8.64) wire & cable prods
    Old Dominion Freight (ODFL) 85 84 30.6 9.1 11.6 18.5 36.39 (38.47-21.02) transport servs
    Echo Global Logistics (ECHO) 84 55 6.4 3.2 1.8 26.1 14.93 (16.09-9.85) supply chain mgmt
      Field: Operator: Factor: Compare to:
      Exchange Not Equal   Over the counter
    And Quarterly Surprise-Date >=   2011-03-31
      Quarterly Surprise-Percent >   0
      Qtrly Surprise-Prior Qtr-Percent >   0
      Quarterly Surprise-EPS >   0
      EPS Est Y0 >   0
      EPS Est Y0 >   EPS Est Y0-Last month
      EPS Est Q0 >   EPS Est Q0-Last month
      EPS Est Y0-Revisions down Equals   0
      EPS Est Q0-Revisions down Equals   0
      % Rank-Rel Strength 52 week >   50
      % Rank-Rel Strength 13 week >=   % Rank-Rel Strength 52 week
    John Bajkowski is president of AAII.


    Discussion

    Allen from CA posted over 4 years ago:

    completely blank page(s)...yuck!


    You need to log in as a registered AAII user before commenting.
    Create an account

    Log In