Stocks for the Long Term: Why Prospects Are Rosy
by Dale Domian and William Reichenstein
You already know the bad news: U.S. stocks as measured by the S&P 500 lost almost 50% from the October 2007 peak though November 18, 2008. Most foreign stock indexes were off by a little more than 50% this year.
The good news is that based on today’s depressed prices, long-term stock prospects appear above average.
In this article
- Theory
- Historical Evidence
- What Actions Do They Imply?
- What NOT to Do Now
- What You SHOULD Do
- Summary
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In this article, we take a look at some of the evidence that supports a rosy multi-year stock outlook, and provide a framework for applying these forecasts.
Theory
Without a crystal ball, can investors get a rough “forecast” of long-term stock returns?
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William Reichenstein , CFA, holds the Pat and Thomas R. Powers Chair in Investment Management at Baylor University. bill_reichenstein@baylor.edu.
Discussion
Will AAII be publishing the three indicators discussed in this article?
posted about 1 year ago by Donald from Maryland
I am a relatively new member to aaii. Still exploring and learning from the writings and all that the web site has to offer.
Same question as above. Will aaii be publishing the 3 indicators discussed in the article each quarter? Or, will aaii direct readers as to how we can review a summary of the selected tables/charts with the data offered?
posted about 1 year ago by Joesph from Pennsylvania
These indicators are not included the datafeeds we receive. Robert Shiller maintains a website with his information at http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
The bond yields are available at many financial websites, such as Bloomberg.
I would check Value Line's website for its indicator.
posted about 1 year ago by Charles Rotblut from Illinois
