The Election-Year Effect: For Now, 2008 Stock Market Bucks the Trend
by Wayne A. Thorp
Since 1950, stocks have risen in 13 of the 14 presidential years, according to the Stock Traders Almanac. Likewise, according to the Seeking Alpha Web site (www.seekingalpha.com), the S&P 500 has gained an average of 8.6% in the fourth year of a presidents term and 3.8% in the fourth year of a presidents second term.
However, so far this year the market has been unable to overcome a slumping housing market, rising food, oil and gasoline prices, and an anemic economy. All of these factors have contributed to the S&P 500 being down 7.3% through the first week of June of this year (Figure 1).
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