Joseph Ludwig .


Discussion

George Macdonald from PA posted over 4 years ago:

I find it amazing that so many people disparage market timing. Yet, virtually every time they decide to buy or sell, they are making decisions that the price will either go up or down -- and that is market timing.

"Buy Low" & "Sell High" is another name for market timing. You don't have to be shooting the highest high or the lowest low -- just trying to get somewhere close is still market timing.


John m Welford from uk posted over 4 years ago:

I believe there are two aspects to Market Timing,not just the Technical Aspect.

First,the Fundamental aspect,(Index PE,PBV,PSR,Govt Bond Yields/Earning Yields etc etc and others) compared with historical Fundamentals.

Secondly, Sentiment and Technical short term indicators (VIX, AAII sentiment Indicators,RSI, MACD and others).

When both indicators are too high, we have the imminent probability of a full blown bear market, or too low, the imminent start of a new vigorous bull market.

When only the Technical indicators show up too high, it usually foretells a correction in an ongoing bull market, or too low, a temporary upswing in an ongoing bear market.

I categorise all these indicators in terms of a percentage position up from a theoretical bottom based on historical levels. When both indicators exceed 80% a serious bear market is imminent,when below 10% the start of a new bull market is due.

In early March 2009 a nadir of 2% was reached in both indicators,following an earlier extreme high of over 85% in both during late September 2007. Both proved accurate and worked wonders for my Investment Results.

The S&P 500 is now at 52% (Fundamentals) and 57% (Sentiment) so Market rises are still to come.


Hitesh Patel from PA posted over 4 years ago:

Hi John,
I do agree on Dual Aspect view
Do you mind explaining more about your system and in practice how do you track all that on a regular basis.
Thanks


Howard Wetzel from VA posted over 3 years ago:

It would be interesting to hear from John Welford again, now that the equity markets have risen so much in the last 10 months. What kind of numbers are your Fundamental and Sentiment indicators showing now?

Thanks.


Paul Yoder from MI posted over 3 years ago:

I have used the 200 day average of a selected group of mutual funds with a confirming indicator of the 200 day average of the Wilshire 5000 (Dow Jones Industrials in earlier years). When these averages are above the 200 day average I was fully invested and when they went below the 200 day average I was in cash. Since 1986 I have avoided all major market melt downs and got back into the market after the trend turned up. I did have a few minor whipsaws during the 90's but the long term results were excellent.


David Woolley from VA posted over 3 years ago:

I've had some luck using William O'Neil's "How to Make Money in Stocks" for picking market bottoms, but haven't found a good way to pick market tops. I do believe in the presidential election cycles contained in the "Stock Trader's Almanac". Based on this, I was surprised by how strong last year (2013) was since it was a post election year. Thus, I sat with too much cash. Basically I believe in technical analysis over the opinions of Wall Street "experts".


Richard Abbott from FL posted over 3 years ago:

I am 83 years old and I have using asset allocation for the past 20 years and it has fortunately worked well for me. I have averaged 9% a year over the past 20 years. I take 112 minus my age in conservative balanced mutual funds, the rest in short to intermediate mutual fund bond funds and one year in cash equivalents. When the market was down to 6400 in 2008 I did nothing - no selling and no buying. My portfolio was down 27% in 2008 and now I am up 175% since February, 2009 - a "happy" camper.


Richard Abbott from FL posted over 3 years ago:

I am 83 years old and I have using asset allocation for the past 20 years and it has fortunately worked well for me. I have averaged 9% a year over the past 20 years. I take 112 minus my age in conservative balanced mutual funds, the rest in short to intermediate mutual fund bond funds and one year in cash equivalents. When the market was down to 6400 in 2008 I did nothing - no selling and no buying. My portfolio was down 27% in 2008 and now I am up 175% since February, 2009 - a "happy" camper.


jhon from new york posted over 2 years ago:

You should add
John Murphy's book
"Technicall Analysis of Stocks and Bonds"
A classic


Paul Koehler from NE posted over 2 years ago:

Has anyone looked into net inflows and outflows for equity mutual funds? Reference p 18 of Nov 2014 AAII Journal, Figure 1 of article by O'Shaughnessy. Are there websites that report current inflows/outflows?


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 2 years ago:

Paul,

The Investment Company Institute publishes weekly data on mutual fund flows and monthly data on ETFs.

-Charles


Paul Koehler from NE posted over 2 years ago:

Charles

Thank you. Do you by any chance subscribe?


Charles Rotblut from IL posted over 2 years ago:

To the ICI's data? Yes, I get their weekly email alerts. I look at the data, but don't make any decisions based on it.

-Charles


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