Even with the pullback in August, it continues to be a very strong year for the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio. The portfolio is up 33.6% year-to-date as of August 31, 2013, compared to a gain of 16.0% for the S&P 500 index as measured by the Vanguard 500 Index fund (VFINX).
These results, as well as results for longer periods, can be seen in Figure 1 and Table 3. Almost every segment of the stock market seems very strong despite lots of disquieting events. I mentioned last quarter that although some of the economic concerns had lessened, we would probably find a new problem by the time this article was written. Sure enough, we got Syria and the problem of how to respond to their use of chemical weapons.
While the decision of what to do about Syria will be made before my January column, the budget crisis will be coming back into play over the next three months. So far, the market has taken a little step back with each negative event or prediction and then come bouncing back.
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