The Muni Market Turmoil Continues: What's Going on and How to Respond

by Annette Thau

There have been a number of very bad years in the municipal bond market. But 2008 is in a league of its own—without any doubt, the worst year ever in the municipal bond market.

Last April, I wrote an article about steep declines in the muni market during the second half of February 2008 [“Turmoil in the Marketplace: What’s Going on With Munis?,” May 2008 AAII Journal; available at AAII.com]. The market subsequently rallied somewhat, but remained depressed.

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About the author

Annette Thau is the author of “The Bond Book, Third Edition: Everything Investors Need to Know About Treasuries, Municipals, GNMAs, Corporates, Zeros, Bond Funds, Money Market Funds, and More” (McGraw-Hill, 2010). Annette has also written more than 20 articles for the AAII Journal.
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A much steeper decline began in September, and as I write this (the second week of December), there is no end in sight. The declines taking place are unprecedented: particularly for bonds with long maturities and/or weaker credit quality.

This article will describe what has been taking place in the muni market. It will also briefly attempt to answer a number of questions:

What lies behind the current declines?
Are the current prices a buying opportunity?
For the risk averse, where you can find safety?

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→ Annette Thau is the author of “The Bond Book, Third Edition: Everything Investors Need to Know About Treasuries, Municipals, GNMAs, Corporates, Zeros, Bond Funds, Money Market Funds, and More” (McGraw-Hill, 2010). Annette has also written more than 20 articles for the AAII Journal.

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January 2009 Issue

Features
Stocks for the Long Term: Why Prospects Are Rosy
You already know the bad news concerning stocks. The good news is that based on today's depressed prices, long-term stock prospects appear above average. A look at some of the evidence that supports a rosy multi-year stock outlook, and a framework for applying these forecasts.

The First Cut
All-Star Stocks That Pass the Most Screens
A starting point for investors. This issue's focus is on finding companies that passed the most AAII Stock Screens.

The Best of the AAII Journal
The Muni Market Turmoil Continues: What's Going on and How to Respond
There have been a number of very bad years in the municipal bond market. But 2008 is in a league of its own--without any doubt, the worst year ever in the municipal bond market. And the most likely outlook is continued volatility. What lies behind the current declines, and a look at what actions investors may want to consider.

Investor Professor
All Averages Are Not Created Equal
Average returns are reported in many different types of listings. Most individuals assume those averages are all calculated in the same way. In fact, they are not. A look at the different "averages," and how they are calculated.

Stock Screens
2008 AAII Stock Screen Roundup: Piotroski Strategy Defeats the Bear
For many investors, 2008 cannot end soon enough, with the S&P 500 index down 40.3% for the year (through early December). During periods like this, very few long-only stock selection strategies generate gains, including AAII’s stock screens. However, one screen proved to be the exception--the low price-to-book-value strategy developed by Joseph Piotroski gained 32.6% through December 5.

Hot Links
Monitoring Bank Safety On-Line
Bank failures and the ongoing turmoil in the financial markets have many individuals concerned about the stability of their own banks. Of course, even in the face of a bank failure, investors have some protections.

Offbeat Offerings
Foreign Ordinaries
An investor reference for products that are not your typical offerings.

AAII Model Portfolios
Bear Market Punishes Shadow Stocks But Qualifying Stocks Abound
The stock market is punishing every sector, and it is punishing its favorite children--micro-cap and extreme value stocks--the most. Year-to-date (through November 30, 2008) the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio is down 51.1%. On the other hand, this quarter, there were over 90 candidates that qualified on our basic criteria--easily a record.

Departments
Briefly Noted

Briefly Noted

Letters to the Editor
Member questions and comments on recent AAII Journal articles.

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