Mark Hulbert is editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, a newsletter that ranks the performance of investment advisory newsletters. It is published monthly and is located at 5051B Backlick Rd., Annandale, Va. 22003; 703/750-9060.


Discussion

Leonard from New York posted over 2 years ago:

Going back around 2-1/2 years, my actual traded value beat my theoretical "frozen" value by almost 20%. Nice to know I beat out all those "professional" advisers. I don't like to toot my own horn, but ... oh, who am I kidding? I *love* to toot my own horn. (Wait a minute -- that sounded kind of weird, didn't it? :) )


William from Pennsylvania posted over 2 years ago:

I agree with the premise of the article. While I have beaten the markets every year but one since 2000, I have made many more bad decisions than good ones. What saves me is that I do not buy anything but a beaten -down , low-priced stock.The downside on each position is 100%, the maximum upside so-far has proven to be more that 3,600%. So the occasional winners giving 3-30 times returns, while a few go to zero, and most mosey around somewhere near where purchased, have kept me solvent and happy.

From about 2003 through late 2008 I typically traded only 5-10% of my portfolio annually, so I made fewer bad decisions. I am 100% invested in stocks at all times, and so must sell when we need funds for living.In the first 4 months of 2009 I became very active selling most stocks that had held up reasonably well and rolling proceeds into the more volatile stocks in the most beaten-down and cyclical sectors. The results in the remainder of 2009 were fantastically good, but since then they have been only fair, at best. I like my positioning, and am just waiting with the hope the economic recovery will continue past the end of mortgage and foreclosure losses. We'll see.


Paul from California posted over 2 years ago:

So, what does this sat about today's article on rebalancing?


Marcia from Georgia posted over 2 years ago:

To answer the question asking what this says about the article on rebalancing, it doesn't say anything at all about it. This article addresses whether active trading is likely to add value to a portfolio. The conclusion as I understand it is that over active trading is not valuable for most investors, even professional investors, and reduces portfolio performance. The article about rebalancing is commentary on a risk control practice. After one has chosen a portfolio, hopefully balanced with equities, bonds, commodities, real estate, and maybe the odd absolute return investment, that suits the individual's risk profile, it is wise to maintain the allocation percentages more or less as chosen. The rebalancing article speaks to this risk control process.

The idea of rebalancing as risk control isn't new and has been accepted by very respected people. Burton Malkiel, hope I spelled the name correctly, Jack Bogle, and a youngster named Liz Ann Sonders at Schwab have all consistently recommended rebalancing as very important for proper portfolio maintenance. Bogle and Malkiel have both been on record a long time as believing annual rebalancing is adequate.

As for frequent trades, well, the famous investor Jesse Livermore said, "It was never my thinking that made big money for me. It was always my sitting.".


Phillip from Indiana posted over 2 years ago:

Very informative. It does seem as soon as I do sell a stock, that is when it decides to start performing.


Bill from Florida posted over 2 years ago:

Very interesting. Where can we see the actual results of your research; i.e., the 1/3 who did better by trading?


Bill from Massachusetts posted over 2 years ago:

Wish I'd seen about this great article four months ago. Biggest recent mistake, selling out of Acme Packet at 145% profit, and missing a five-bagger :-(

And beware the "China" backdoor IPO stocks. Last February, frustrated by the AAII's ill-performing Piotroski screen, I deviated from that list to buy some stock in "value"-laden CCME--five days before the CFO resigned and NASDAQ froze all trading. See http://www.thestreet.com/story/10952277/sec-probes-china-stock-fraud-network.html, for a link to a comprehensive, well-researched article about these Chinese mobster vehicles.


Pete from California posted over 2 years ago:

Great article, Mark, as usual.
To remove emotions with their poor and now I learn excessive trading decisions from my life what I have finally done is to subscribe to and follow The Prudent Speculator. It has been very successful for many years. Some of its stocks have been held for 25 years. Its whole universe of stocks has returned, IAW Mark, the best non-risk adjusted returns against the other letters over what, 5, 10, 25 years. About 70% of their investments have been successful, plenty good enough for me.


Alexander from Massachusetts posted over 2 years ago:

You are absolutely right. In most cases shortly after i run out of patience the stock goes up.


Alexander from Massachusetts posted over 2 years ago:

You are absolutely right. In most cases shortly after i run out of patience the stock goes up.


Alexander from Massachusetts posted over 2 years ago:

You are absolutely right. In most cases shortly after i run out of patience the stock goes up.


Shane from Tennessee posted over 2 years ago:

I've noticed similar things in my trading, however I also notice in that the best traders ("Market Wizards" book) mostly seem to advise a willingness to act quickly when getting out of a bad position. They have somehow learned to do what most of apparently can't.


George from Pennsylvania posted over 2 years ago:

I wonder if all these discussions about "buy-n-hold" vs trading are more about semantics than about making money in the markets...

Perhaps the traders tend to be more focused on chasing the current hot stock or running from the losers while the buy-n-hold'rs tend to be the Alfred E Newmon's saying "What? Me Worry?"

If neither are employing defensive, opportunistic investing, they are ignoring the volitile aspects of today's markets.

For myself, I tend to apply both tactics in a way that (I hope) will tilt the odds in my favor. I neither try for the big gain -- but I try to avoid the big loss as well...

Buddha had it right: "Take the middle road"


Tom from Pennsylvania posted over 2 years ago:

Unfortunately, I'm the classic case that stayed in the market when it was going down until I could't take it amy longer, then sold. Only to stay out too long when it went back up and miss most of the early gains leaving me way under where I should be. So your article hits home.


Dan from Texas posted over 2 years ago:

I just talked to my broker and he wanted to know why I had done so little trading. I told him that the last time we talked he only wanted to talk about balancing Simon Properties. I had made more by keeping Simon than I felt I would have on another unknown stock. I am an eighty four year old investor.


Michael from New York posted over 2 years ago:

It is easy to confuse luck for brains when judging investing results. The beginner investor may be lucky. Later,luck runs out and the portfolio value sinks. Increasingly I like rules to buy and sell on. If the rules set are on good fundamental and technical criteria, adhered to, trades should be few and far between. For the power of compounding to work, it is best to hold stocks for a long time and reinvest dividends to buy more shares. Rebalancing is done infrequently and only after thresholds met. Keeping costs low by keeping commissions low important. So are keeping managed fund fees low by investing in funds with low commissions and no loads. Patience is a virtue and seemingly one of the few values an investor can add to management of their portfolios. There is no doubt (in my mind) that intuition plays a role. One can know intuitively when a stock is low priced or over priced. Intuition applied has helped me avoid two big market sell offs by taking profits before they were taken from me. Investing is more than buy and hold strategy. Consider the result of owning the S&P500 for more than a decade when it trades lower now. Mark Hulbert is spot on about keeping trades down. Frequent trades shifts too much emphasis on the here and now and too little on the long term.


Walter from Pennsylvania posted about 1 year ago:

I have long been a fan of the finally retired but never to be forgotten John Bogle of Vanguard who has made similar remarks regarding investments in broadly based bond and stock index funds. Thank goodness for such people and for the positive observations expressed in this current article by Hulbert.


Nancy & barry from Florida posted about 1 year ago:

You really do need to do your weeding, to have a good investment garden. Why hold a stock whose management has made poor business decisons and whose value is tanking?


James from Texas posted about 1 year ago:

If you never take profits, you will never have any----


Werner from Pennsylvania posted about 1 year ago:

It is well known that investing in equities depends about 80% on the market and 20% on stock selection. Perhaps one should not spend so much time on the latter, but analyze the market, which is a science all by itself. Do not fall for all the histeria of the media.


Michael from California posted about 1 year ago:

I have always subscribed to the philosophy advocated by Bill O'Neill who publishes the Investors Business Daily. His system of CANSLIM and his system of stock evaluation seems to work for me. He advocates selling a stock if it looses 8% after purchase.Of course this says one has to catch a stock just at breakout or you will be loosing money in fees.
This is an excellent article. As always Mark always does a great job!
I have striven to beat the S&P 500 year after year, with a goal of 20% return each year.


Nancy from California posted 7 months ago:

We are still stuck in a bygone era of investor education as evidenced by this author's lack of understanding of current technologies and liquid markets. I would ask Mr. Hulbert a very simple question: if trading frequently is so bad, why then are Casinos so profitable? They don't ask me how big my bets are, they all want to know how often I come to Vegas.


Paul from New York posted 7 months ago:

Nancy, you answered your own question. Trading frequently in Vegas *is* bad... for the gambler. That is why casinos encourage frequent trading... er, I mean betting. The house often has a very slim edge over the gambler, and although anyone can go on a hot streak for a little while, the casino knows that the longer the gambler plays the more the odds begin to tilt in the house's favor. That is why they offer free rooms to big winners: to keep them at the casino longer so they are more likely to gamble their winnings back into the casino's hands.


Shane from Tennessee posted 7 months ago:

re: "If you never take profits, you will never have any----"

seriously? I guess it could also be said "If you never take losses, you will never have any---"


John Duguid from New Jersey posted 7 months ago:

The stock screens at AAII are turned over monthly. What happens to the performance of those screens if they are frozen or at least traded annually?

As it is, if one uses one of the discount brokers (Schwab, Fidelity or Ameritrade) to employ one of the screening strategies using monthly turnover, the transactional drag would be enormous until one was willing to spend tens-of-thousands per stock within the portfolio. For example, if one spent $500 per investment and flipped that every month at a transaction cost of $8.95 per order (one buy and sell order each month), the investor would be subject to a 3.6% monthly or 43% annualized transactional drag. That annualized drag declines to 2.1% if one increases the investment to $10,000 per stock. Still, that drag adds up when compounding over a 30 year period. Then there is the taxes on any gains left over....


Jean Henrich from Illinois posted 7 months ago:

John Duguid,
We ran an article in Computerized Investing in 2005 that examined the effect of using quarterly or semiannual holding periods for the stock screens.
http://www.aaii.com/computerized-investing/article/feature-changing-the-holding-period-of-aaii-stock-screens
-Jean at AAII


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