ETF Selection Rationale
The rationale used in building the Model ETF Portfolo is to achieve diversification across the asset classes listed below while maintaining a weighting that, in our assessment of historical data, will provide the maximum opportunity for long-term rates of return.
Across national boundaries—U.S. versus foreign:
We begin with an 80% U.S. and 20% foreign portfolio but this could change. Foreign stock returns involve currency relationships as well as the usual equity analysis. The initial weighting takes into consideration the fact that many U.S. companies have significant foreign involvement.
In foreign investments:
- Style will be diversified. We will seek emphasis on value stocks when it is possible.
- We will seek a heavier weighting in the small-capitalization area than the typical portfolio.
- We will diversify across equities and real estate, but will not use foreign bonds for risk reduction—at least not initially.
In U.S. investments:
- We will diversify across equities, real estate, master limited partnerships and short-term bonds. Short-term bond ETFs will be included as an option for investors who need further risk reduction. However, they will not be in the actual Model ETF Portfolio.
- Our style diversification will aim for a heavier emphasis on value than the overall market.
- The capitalization weightings will place considerably more emphasis on small-capitalization stocks than the overall market. We will seek to achieve this not only by including small-cap ETFs but by choosing larger-cap ETFs that do not weight solely on capitalization.
Which Specific ETFs?
Although the above outlines the areas in which we will look for ETFs, it does not explain how we will choose specific ETFs when there are multiple ETFs in an area.
It will be many years before we have enough history to develop a solid set of criteria as we have for the Model Mutual Fund Portfolio. Many of the sponsors of ETFs, however, have a history with other investment vehicles that can provide a guide, as can liquidity, expense ratios, and the philosophy espoused in prospectuses. Over time we should be able to harden our criteria.
How the Portfolio is Managed
We will not make trades solely for the purpose of rebalancing, except under unusual conditions. When we make trades for other reasons, we will do so in a way that repositions the portfolio back toward the initial weighting.
The current recommended initial weighting is to give each domestic holding an equal weight (for a total of 80% in domestic ETFs) and each foreign issue an equal weight (for a total of 20% in foreign stock ETFs). If you choose not to hold a particular ETF, maintain the equal weightings in each of the domestic and foreign areas, and keep the balance of 80% domestic stock ETFs and 20% foreign stock ETFs.
A Note on Weightings:
If you are trying to follow this portfolio with your own funds, it is recommended that the First Trust Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index, PowerShares FTSE RAFI US 1000, Rydex S&P Midcap 400 Pure Value, and Rydex S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Value funds be weighted equally.
The weighting of the iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors fund can vary based on your exposure to other real estate holdings. Since the Model ETF Portfolio has no other real estate, it was weighted equally in the actual portfolio. These five ETFs each make up 16% of the portfolio. The international ETFs—SDPR S&P Int’l Small Cap, SDPR Dow Jones Int’l Real Estate, Vanguard FTSE All-World Ex-U.S., and Vanguard Emerging Markets—are each weighted 5% of the overall portfolio. The iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond fund should be considered if you are looking for a slight hedge against risk. Since the Model Portfolio is very long-term, the iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond fund was not included in the actual portfolio, but in the future we will show the risk and return effect of holding this exchange-traded fund.
