O'Shaughnessy: Growth Market Leaders Screen
|O'Shaughnessy: Growth Market Leaders||S&P 500|
|Five Year Return:||11.8%||12.2%|
|Ten Year Return:||4.4%||5.2%|
Predicting the future of the market is almost impossible, but that doesn't stop investors from trying. In his newest book, "Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow: A Contrarian Investment Strategy for the Next Twenty Years," James O'Shaughnessy argues that investors can predict where the markets are going by simply looking at historical long-term trends.
Through an examination of stock market history, O'Shaughnessy developed four stock selection approaches for individual investors that attempt to take maximum advantage of market trends. He focuses on finding stocks among the various market capitalizations that are most likely to do well based on his research.
O'Shaughnessy studied data dating back to the late 1790s and found that equity markets tend to move in trends of about 20 years. According to this pattern, a 20-year trend began in early 2000 during which greater returns will be earned by small- and mid-cap stocks and large-cap value stocks. The previous 20-year cycle favored large-cap growth stocks, while small- and mid-cap stocks and large-cap value stocks were, on average, underperforming the market.
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