Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.7 percentage points to 36.9%. The increase puts neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.0% for the 34th consecutive week.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 2.4 percentage points to 38.3%. Pessimism was last higher on February 10, 2016 (48.7%). Bearish sentiment is still within its typical historical range, though it’s above its historical average of 30.5% for the third time in four weeks.

During the past two weeks, pessimism has jumped by a cumulative 9.8 percentage points, while optimism has fallen by a cumulative 5.0 percentage points. Concerns continue to exist about a potentially larger drop in stock prices than occurred earlier in the month. It is also not completely clear how much influence the upcoming election is having on sentiment, though it is mentioned regularly without any prompt from us in response to the survey's weekly special question.

The survey period runs from Thursday through Wednesday. As such, the majority of this week's survey responses were recorded before yesterday's Federal Reserve statement and yesterday's new record high for the NASDAQ. (AAII members have previously expressed mixed opinions about the new record highs established by the major indexes this summer.)

In addition to worries about a potential larger drop in stock prices, some AAII members have previously expressed concern about valuations, global economic uncertainty and the pace of corporate earnings growth. Giving other individual investors reason for optimism are this summer’s rise in stock prices, the perceived lack of investment alternatives, corporate earnings, low/stable energy prices and sustained, albeit slow, economic growth.

This week's special question asked AAII members how, if at all, oil prices are affecting their outlook for the stock market in general. Just under half of all respondents (46%) said oil prices are not influencing their outlook for stocks. Some said the presidential election is having a greater impact on their sentiment. Approximately 11% of all respondents view low oil prices as being good for the economy, and thereby the market. Slightly more than 8% viewed low oil prices as being negative, with some saying the lower prices reflect weak economic conditions.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

• "Not impacting my outlook, unless oil starts moving up or down."
• "Continuing low oil prices are good for consumers and most businesses, so I expect a positive impact on stock prices."
• "I'll be concerned if oil prices drop or rise considerably."
• "Oil prices have some impact, but I believe the upcoming election has more impact."
• "Low oil prices continue to indicate weak global demand in the coming months."