AAII, the American Association of Individual Investors
The stock market continues its upward movement despite anticipation of a pullback.
The Model Fund Portfolio is up 7.5% and the All-ETF Portfolio is up 7.7% year-to-date. This compares to 7.0% for the S&P 500 index as represented by the Vanguard S&P Index fund (VFINX).
Results for the Model Fund Portfolio over longer periods can be viewed in Figure 1 and Tables 1 and 2. Performance for the All-ETF Portfolio is shown in Table 3. The Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ) exchange-traded fund continues to lead the pack and is making up for the weak period a year ago. The iShares MSCI Frontier 100 (FM) exchange-traded fund, up 9.9% year-to-date, is still outperforming the Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index (VWO) exchange-traded fund, which is up 7.1% year-to-date.
The All-ETF portfolio continues to outperform the Model Fund Portfolio, but not by a significant amount. It’s about equal to the difference in expenses.
Small- and mid-cap value stocks continue to lag. They had been the big winners over the past several years, but slowed somewhat earlier this year.
There are no changes to the Model Fund Portfolio.
Aston/Fairpointe Mid Cap N (CHTTX) and FMI Common Stock (FMIMX) continue to be closed to new investors. Current shareholders should continue to hold these funds, but those investors who do not own them can build a portfolio from the remaining seven funds.
We are no longer running performance figures for the Conservative Portfolio, which we had defined as a portfolio invested 75% in the Model Fund Portfolio and 25% invested in the iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond (SHY) exchange-traded fund. While I believe that many investors need to be more conservative than being 100% in the Model Fund Portfolio or All-ETF portfolio, I think the appropriate level of risk is unique to each investor. I don’t want the tracking of a sample conservative portfolio to be taken as a suggestion that a particular level of risk is appropriate for many investors, so I have decided it is best to drop calculation of the Conservative Portfolio.
| Type | Fund (Ticker) |
Market Cap Size |
YTD Return (%) |
Annual Return (%) |
Fund Assets ($ Mil) |
Exp Ratio (%) |
Std Dev (36 Mo. Ann'l) (%) |
Worst 3-Yr Cal Period (%) |
|||
|
1- Yr |
5- Yr |
10- Yr |
Since 6/30/03 |
||||||||
|
MF
|
Aston/Fairpointe Mid Cap N (CHTTX)*
|
Large-Cap
|
10.3
|
30.3
|
25.1
|
11.4
|
13.2
|
2,481.5
|
1.12
|
18.4
|
-7.9
|
|
MF
|
Fidelity Capital & Income (FAGIX)
|
na**
|
7.3
|
15.0
|
15.5
|
9.8
|
9.8
|
10,548.9
|
0.73
|
8.0
|
-7.2
|
|
MF
|
Fidelity OTC (FOCPX)
|
Large-Cap
|
6.8
|
34.4
|
21.3
|
11.1
|
nmf
|
7,786.2
|
0.76
|
16.9
|
-8.3
|
|
MF
|
FMI Common Stock (FMIMX)*
|
Mid-Cap
|
6.8
|
27.5
|
19.2
|
11.2
|
12.3
|
1,408.4
|
1.19
|
12.8
|
-3.0
|
|
ETF
|
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)
|
Large-Cap
|
8.4
|
26.8
|
21.8
|
9.5
|
11.1
|
7,794.1
|
0.40
|
14.0
|
-11.4
|
|
ETF
|
Guggenheim S&P MidCap 400 Pure Val (RFV)
|
Mid-Cap
|
6.5
|
25.6
|
24.2
|
nmf
|
nmf
|
98.7
|
0.38
|
16.3
|
-4.3
|
|
ETF
|
Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Val (RZV)
|
Small-Cap
|
2.9
|
26.7
|
21.9
|
nmf
|
nmf
|
178.2
|
0.35
|
19.5
|
-7.9
|
|
ETF
|
iShares MSCI Frontier 100 (FM)
|
Large-Cap
|
9.9
|
24.6
|
nmf
|
nmf
|
nmf
|
803.3
|
0.79
|
nmf
|
nmf
|
|
ETF
|
Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ)***
|
Large-Cap
|
17.7
|
13.4
|
23.8
|
9.6
|
nmf
|
23,050.0
|
0.10
|
16.2
|
-11.9
|
|
Avg of Funds in Actual Model Fund Portfolio†
|
|
8.5
|
25.0
|
15.3
|
10.4
|
11.6
|
6,016.6
|
0.65
|
15.3
|
-7.7
|
|
|
Actual Fund Portfolio Performance††
|
|
7.5
|
22.9
|
14.1
|
8.1
|
9.8
|
—
|
—
|
12.8
|
-6.4
|
|
|
Optional Investment:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
ETF
|
iShares Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
|
0.4
|
0.6
|
1.0
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
7,785.9
|
0.15
|
0.4
|
1.3
|
|
|
Comparison:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MF
|
Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX)
|
Giant-Cap
|
7.0
|
24.4
|
18.7
|
7.7
|
8.6
|
28,077.9
|
0.17
|
12.1
|
-8.4
|
*CHTTX and FMIMX are closed to new investors. Current shareholders can continue to invest in both funds. Other investors should simply use the other seven funds to form their portfolio.
**Distressed securities - stock and bond.
***Vanguard REIT Index Investors mutual fund (VGSIX) returns used before October 2004.
†A simple average of the funds in the current Model Fund Portfolio.
††Performance of actual portfolio since inception (June 2003) including reinvested dividends.
nmf = no meaningful figure
Source: Morningstar, Inc. Data as of 6/30/2014.
My personal feeling is that investors who are far from retirement—or have another need to withdraw funds—should be almost entirely in equities. On the other hand, for those near retirement (or with another need to withdraw funds) the level of very safe investments should be based on the time that will elapse before the funds need to be withdrawn, not on some percentage of wealth. Since this is unique to each investor, I don’t want to favor a particular level.
| Average Annual Return (%) | Cumulative Return of $10,000($) | |||
| Model Fund Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) | Model Fund Portfolio | Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) | |
|
2003*
|
18.6
|
15.0
|
11,858
|
11,503
|
|
2004
|
17.7
|
10.8
|
13,955
|
12,742
|
|
2005
|
5.4
|
4.8
|
14,711
|
13,350
|
|
2006
|
16.1
|
15.6
|
17,086
|
15,436
|
|
2007
|
10.2
|
5.4
|
18,820
|
16,267
|
|
2008
|
-35.9
|
-37.0
|
12,071
|
10,245
|
|
2009
|
24.9
|
26.5
|
15,080
|
12,959
|
|
2010
|
20.3
|
14.9
|
18,136
|
14,892
|
|
2011
|
-1.7
|
2.0
|
17,827
|
15,186
|
|
2012
|
15.5
|
15.8
|
20,597
|
17,589
|
|
2013
|
26.7
|
32.2
|
26,097
|
23,250
|
|
YTD**
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
28,054
|
24,885
|
|
Since Inception**
|
9.8
|
8.6
|
26,097
|
23,250
|
*June 30 to December 31, 2003
**Through June 30, 2014. Portfolio was started on June 30, 2003.
We will continue to show the performance of the optional iShares Barclays 1-3 Treasury Bond (SHY) exchange-traded fund investment so that you can calculate the impact it might have on your portfolio given any particular portfolio percentage invested.
The fund selection rationale consists of two distinct approaches. The first approach is to select actively managed funds where the managers have shown a long-term ability to outperform the market after allowing for additional portfolio risk, regardless of the sector invested in. A fund must have the following characteristics to be considered for the Model Fund Portfolio:
The above rules apply to new fund selections. Funds will not automatically be eliminated if they later violate the rules without considering other factors.
The second methodology selects investment approaches that have provided excess returns or reduced portfolio risk to investors over the long term and then searches for the best traditional fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) in that area. Factors to be considered are:
Over the past two years, more and more pundits have been predicting a major pullback, but the market continues to move up at more than an average rate. I have no idea when there might be a pullback. There are multiple factors that cause concern—from an election and uncertainty about the economy domestically to the most simultaneous conflicts abroad that I can remember. We may see some increase in market volatility, but it would be prudent to maintain your long-term investment posture.
| Fund (Ticker) | Weight | Annual Return (%) | |
| YTD | 2013 | ||
|
Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP)
|
40%
|
8.4
|
35.6
|
|
Guggenheim S&P MidCap 400 Pure Value (RFV)
|
20%
|
6.5
|
38.3
|
|
Guggenheim S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value (RZV)
|
20%
|
2.9
|
45.1
|
|
iShares MSCI Frontier 100 (FM)
|
10%
|
9.9
|
25.6
|
|
Vanguard REIT Index (VNQ)
|
10%
|
17.7
|
2.4
|
|
Portfolio Weighted Performance
|
100%
|
7.7
|
33.7
|
|
Comparison: SPDR S&P 500 (SPY)
|
7.1
|
32.2
|
|
| Annual Return (%) |
Cumulative Return of $10,000 ($) |
|||
| YTD | 2013 | YTD | 2013 | |
|
ETF Alternative Portfolio
|
7.7
|
33.7
|
$14,399
|
$13,372
|
|
Comparison: Spider S&P 500 (SPY)
|
7.1
|
32.2
|
$14,153
|
$13,221
|
Source: Morningstar, Inc. Data as of 6/30/2014.
We will review the Model Fund Portfolio and the All-ETF Portfolio again in the November AAII Journal. In the meantime, you can keep up with the portfolios at AAII.com.