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AAII Investor Update
Thursday, September 3, 2020



Dear Member,

When we introduced the project we’ve code-named “The AAII Way,” some AAII members asked us to include rules governing the addition and deletion of stocks. The challenge in providing specific rules is the varied manners in which individual investors trade. Laying out specific rules for a value-oriented, buy-and-hold strategy won’t necessarily be of use to a growth-oriented investor who is willing to trade more frequently.

There is a middle ground between giving specific rules and simply telling investors to write down what would prompt them to buy and sell. (Though we strongly believe every investor—be they an individual or institutional investor—should have written buy and sell rules.) The middle ground is to provide guidelines based on investing style. This will help each of you to formulate rules based on your preferences.

We’re going to start the conversation this week. The initial conversation will carry over until at least next week’s Investor Update. Hence, the “Part 1” in today’s title.

Before getting into specifics, there are broad characteristics of successful stock investing strategies for all types of investors—from the short-term chartists to those who seek to minimize turnover as much as possible. They include:

• Understanding why you bought a stock and what changes would cause you to sell it;

• A systematic and repeatable process for deciding what to buy and sell;

• Simple enough for you to fully understand and routinely follow;

• Cost effective;

• Reflective of your investing time horizon, allocation needs, desired turnover levels and tolerance for risk;

• Require only as much time as you are reasonably able and willing to devote;

• Written or typed rules that are easily accessible when you need to make a decision.



More on AAII.com

  • AAII Screen Characteristics – The value, growth, size and momentum characteristics of the stocks identified by our 60+ stock screens.
  • Momentum Investing the Richard Driehaus Way – Those of you interested in learning more about the Driehaus approach will find this 2018 AAII Journal article helpful.
  • Highlights from this month's AAII Journal

  • Finding Future Winners Among Glamour Stocks – This month’s First Cut uses a scoring system to identify stocks worthy of their high valuation ratios.
  • Many Individual Investors Are Relying on Equities for Portfolio Income – Given the current low-interest rate environment, many AAII members told us they’re using dividend-paying stocks in our latest Big Question Survey.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey

    Bearish sentiment rebounded above 40%, where it has mostly stayed since mid-March. Plus, this week’s special question asked AAII members what they thought about second-quarter earnings. More about this week’s results.

    This week’s results:

    Bullish: 30.8%, down 1.3 points
    Neutral: 27.4%, down 0.9 points
    Bearish: 41.8%, up 2.1 points

    Historical averages:

    Bullish: 38.5%
    Neutral: 31.0%
    Bearish: 30.5%

    Take the Sentiment Survey.

    AAII Asset Allocation Survey

    Equity allocations rose to a six-month high in August.  More about the latest results.

    August AAII Asset Allocation Survey results:
    • Stocks and Stock Funds: 64.8%, up 2.6 percentage points
    • Bonds and Bond Funds: 18.9%, up 1.0 percentage points
    • Cash: 16.3%, down 3.6 percentage points

    August AAII Asset Allocation Details:
    • Stocks: 28.4%, down 0.2 percentage points
    • Stock Funds: 36.4%, up 2.8 percentage points
    • Bonds: 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points
    • Bond Funds: 15.9%, down 1.4 percentage points

    Take the Asset Allocation Survey.

    What’s Trending on AAII

    The Week Ahead

    The U.S. financial markets, and our “office” (we’re continuing to work remotely), will be closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.

    I will be moderating a discussion with Alpha Architect’s Jack Vogel on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. CDT. Vogel will explain how to use a systematic process to identify high momentum stocks. Click here to register for this free digital event. 

    Two members of the S&P 500 will report quarterly earnings next week: Oracle Corp. (ORCL) on Thursday and Kroger Co. (KR) on Friday. 

    On Wednesday, the U.S. Labor Department will release the July JOLTS report. Thursday will feature the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ August producer price index (PPI). Lastly, on Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report the August consumer price index (CPI).

    The U.S. Treasury will auction $50 billion of three-year notes on Tuesday, $35 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday and $23 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday.

    Local Chapter Meetings

    AAII Local Chapter meetings offer a variety of presentations from expert speakers who give you their view on the world of investing. Currently, due to the coronavirus pandemic, all Local Chapter in-person programming has been suspended. However, many chapters are hard at work converting their planned events to webinars, which all AAII members are invited to attend regardless of their geographic location. Visit the Local Chapters webpage at AAII.com for a complete list of upcoming webinars.


    Upcoming Meetings »

    Wishing you prosperity,

    Charles Rotblut, CFA
    AAII Journal Editor

    For more articles from this email series, please visit the Investor Update archives online.
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