John Bajkowski
is the president of AAII.
APT
AVD
CTRM
CVLG
EBF
GASS
KE
LAKE
NC
NCSM
NGS
PANL
PKOH
RCKY
RGS
SGA
VPG
A tariff-induced market sell-off has given way to a market rebound. While the market was down overall during April, it has been climbing during May, with large-cap stocks moving back into positive territory year to date as of May 13, 2025.
The S&P 500 index lost 0.7% during April, compared to a 6.5% loss for the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio. The S&P MidCap 400 index lost 2.3% during the month, while the S&P SmallCap 600 index declined 4.2%.
Smaller companies continue to lag larger companies. The S&P SmallCap 600 is down 12.7% year to date, compared to an 8.2% loss for the S&P MidCap 400 and a 4.9% loss for the S&P 500 through the end of April. The Model Shadow Stock Portfolio is down 13.1% year to date.
Growth stocks outperformed value stocks during the month. In the large-cap segment, growth stocks were up 2.2% during April, while value was down 3.6%. Large-cap growth stocks are down 6.4% year to date, compared to a 3.3% loss for large-cap value stocks.
Mid-cap growth stocks lost 0.2% during April, while mid-cap value stocks lost 4.4%. Mid-cap growth stocks are down 8.5% year to date, compared to a 7.9% loss for mid-cap value stocks.
Small-cap growth stocks lost 2.6% during April and are down 10.3% year to date, while small-cap value stocks declined 5.8% during the month and are down 15.2% this year.
Market breadth improved slightly during the month. Within the S&P 500, there were 168 advancing issues, compared to 335 declining issues—a ratio of 0.50, up from 0.44 during March. The ratio was 0.45 for the S&P MidCap 400, up from 0.29 during March. In the S&P SmallCap 600, the ratio was again slightly weaker at 0.39, but up from 0.28 during March.
Five of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 were up during April. Information technology was the strongest sector, up 1.6% after being one of the weakest sectors during March. Energy went from the top-performing sector in March to the weakest sector in April with a 13.7% drop. Oil prices have been declining as countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Plus (OPEC+) have agreed to increase oil production. Lower oil prices harm domestic oil exploration and production companies using more costly oil production techniques such as fracking. Recent surveys note that U.S. shale oil production is generally considered profitable when oil is above $65 per barrel. The energy stocks were among the worst-performing stocks in the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio during April.
Consumer staples and utilities are the strongest S&P 500 sectors this year, up 5.7% and 4.2%, respectively. Consumer discretionary is the weakest S&P 500 sector, down 14.3% year to date due to concerns with consumer spending and higher costs.
For April, only three of the 11 sectors within the S&P MidCap 400 were up for the month. Consumer staples was the strongest sector, up 2.3% during the month and 3.8% year to date, while energy was the weakest sector, down 15.1% both for the month and year to date.
Once again, only the utilities sector was up in the S&P SmallCap 600 during the month. The sector was up 0.4% during April and is now up 6.8% year to date. Energy was the weakest sector, down 17.7% during the month and 28.7% so far this year.
Rocky Brands Inc. 
(RCKY) was the best-performing holding during April, with its stock price jumping after the company reported stronger-than-expected first-quarter 2025 results. Rocky Brands designs, develops, manufactures and markets outdoor, work, western, duty and military footwear, as well as apparel and accessories. The company reiterated its full-year revenue guidance and noted that it was planning to counter the impact of new tariffs by increasing prices and reducing its product sourcing from China.
With the exception of Lakeland Industries Inc. (LAKE), the weakest holdings during April were energy companies hurt by the decline in oil prices. Lakeland Industries manufactures and sells industrial protective clothing and accessories for the industrial and public protective clothing market worldwide. During April, the company reported a loss for its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 ended January 31, while analysts were expecting a profit. The company recorded goodwill impairment charges during the quarter related to acquisitions and product developments that did not fully pan out.
Landsea Homes Corp. (LSEA) announced on May 12, 2025, that it had entered into an agreement to be acquired by New Home Co. for $11.30 per share in an all-cash transaction. The purchase price represented a premium of approximately 61% to Landsea Homes’ closing share price on May 12, 2025, the last trading day prior to the announcement. Upon the completion of the transaction, Landsea Homes will become a privately held company, and its common stock will no longer be listed on the Nasdaq composite. Landsea Homes’ current stock price largely reflects its price when added to the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio, and the holding will be removed from the portfolio during the quarterly review in mid-June.
Two Model Shadow Stock Portfolio holdings delayed the filing of their audited financial statements—American Vanguard Corp. (AVD) and Castor Maritime Inc. (CTRM).
American Vanguard develops, manufacturers and markets essential crop protection and nutrition, turf and ornamental management, and commercial and pest control products. In March, the company released preliminary results for its fourth-quarter 2024, but it noted that it needs additional time to complete its audited financial statements. The company stated that it was working with its auditor to review several assessments related to the write-downs, especially goodwill, that were addressed in the fourth quarter. When the question came up during the earnings conference call, it was affirmed that the delay was due to the complex dynamic around the series of write-downs rather than any necessarily surprising or concerning developments.
Castor Maritime just reported its fourth-quarter 2024 results this week. The company completed its acquisition of a majority stake in MPC Münchmeyer Petersen & Co. GmbH on December 16, 2024. The company required additional time to finalize its consolidated financial statements due to the need to consolidate MPC Capital, whose financial statements need to be converted from German GAAP to U.S. GAAP, and to complete the acquisition accounting.
Additional news for the model portfolio holdings is presented at the end of the email.
With the market up in May, there was a dramatic decrease in stocks passing the Shadow Stock screen. As of May 13, 23 stocks met the initial selection criteria for the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio, compared to 38 stocks one month ago. AAII members can see and research which companies are currently passing the initial selection criteria in the Shadow Stock Ideas table on AAII.com. The list of new Shadow Stock Ideas is updated daily—Tuesday through Saturday.
Of the 23 qualifying companies, seven are currently held in the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio, down from 13 last month. The seven companies currently qualifying include: Alpha Pro Tech Ltd. (APT), Fonar Corp. (FONR), NACCO Industries Inc. (NC), NCS Multistage Holdings Inc. (NCSM), Park Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH), Rocky Brands and StealthGas Inc. (GASS).
Qualifying companies are those held in the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio that currently meet the initial portfolio addition rules. (They are designated as “currently qualifies” in the Notes column of the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio table on AAII.com. However, if you go online, the notes may not match the list discussed here since the notes on the website table are dynamically updated daily.)
Kimball Electronics Inc.’s (KE) market capitalization exceeded the initial maximum to qualify as a new holding. Natural Gas Services Group Inc. (NGS) and Vishay Precision Group Inc.’s (VPG) market caps and price-to-book-value (P/B) ratios exceeded the initial maximum to qualify. Regis Corp.’s (RGS) price-to-book ratio exceeded the maximum initial level to qualify. Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL) and Saga Communications Inc. (SGA) reported negative quarterly earnings, which prevents them from passing the initial Shadow Stock screen.
As of May 13, 2025, Ennis Inc. (EBF) had the highest price-to-book ratio in the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio. Its ratio of 1.68 is above the 0.90 maximum value used for initially qualifying a stock for inclusion in the portfolio. However, stocks are not removed from the portfolio until their price-to-book ratio rises to three times the initial maximum value (2.70).
Covenant Logistics Group Inc. (CVLG) continues to have the highest market cap in the portfolio, with a value of $612.1 million as of May 13, 2025. The Model Shadow Stock Portfolio looks for stocks with a market cap (share price times shares outstanding) greater than $30 million but less than $400 million when adding stocks to the portfolio. Shadow stocks with a market cap three times the initial market-cap maximum ($400 million × 3 = $1.2 billion) at the time of a quarterly review are removed from the portfolio, assuming there is a suitable replacement.
Click here to see the current addition and deletion rules for the portfolio.
The next quarterly review of the AAII Model Shadow Stock Portfolio will take place around the beginning of June 2025, after most of the holdings have announced their quarterly earnings. If there are any changes to the model portfolio, they will be announced in the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio Update email. Sign up for this email so you don’t miss it!
(05/08/2025)
Alpha Pro Tech reported first-quarter 2025 diluted earnings of $0.06 per share, up 20.0% year over year from $0.05 per share. Alpha Pro Tech does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Net sales were $13.8 million, up 2.5% year over year from $13.5 million. Operating income was $455,000, up 39.6% year over year from $326,000.
(05/12/2025)
Amplify Energy reported first-quarter 2025 diluted earnings of $0.097 per share, up from a loss of $0.19 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 39.7% lower than the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.16 per share. Total revenues were $72.1 million, up 4.4% from $69.0 million in the prior quarter. The company generated an operating loss of $4.0 million, up from a loss of $6.7 million in the prior quarter.
(04/30/2025)
Amplify Energy announced that it has signed a termination agreement with Juniper Capital Advisors L.P., for its previously announced merger deal. Both parties mutually agreed upon the decision, which was cited as being primarily influenced by extreme market volatility. Per the terms of the termination agreement, Juniper Capital Advisors is expected to receive $800,000 in cash in place of any other termination fee it might have received under the terms of the merger agreement. Amplify Energy also announced that it has cancelled its previously planned special stockholder meeting.
(05/14/2025)
Castor Maritime reported a fourth-quarter 2024 diluted loss of $1.24 per share, down from earnings of $1.08 per share in the prior-year quarter. Castor Maritime does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Total vessel revenues were $15.0 million, down 43.1% year over year from $26.4 million. The company generated an operating loss of $7.0 million, down year over year from a profit of $7.4 million.
Core Molding Technologies, Inc. (CMT)
(05/08/2025)
Core Molding Technologies reported first-quarter 2025 diluted earnings of $0.25 per share, down 41.9% from $0.43 per share in prior-year quarter. Core Molding Technologies does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Net sales were $61.4 million, down 21.4% year over year from $78.1 million. Operating income was $2.8 million, down 40% year over year from $4.7 million.
Covenant Logistics Group, Inc. (CVLG)
(04/23/2025)
Covenant Logistics Group reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted diluted earnings of $0.32 per share, down 23.8% from $0.42 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 5.0% lower than the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.337 per share. Total revenue was $269.4 million, down 3.7% year over year from $278.8 million. Operating income was $7.6 million, up 75.9% year over year from $4.3 million.
(04/21/2025)
Ennis reported diluted earnings of $0.35 per share for its fiscal fourth-quarter 2024 ended February 28, 2025, down 10.3% from $0.37 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 5.4% lower than the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.37 per share. Revenue was $92.7 million, down 4.8% year over year from $97.4 million. Operating income was $12.0 million, down 7.1% year over year from $12.9 million.
(05/05/2025)
Escalade reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $0.19 per share, up 46.2% from $0.13 per share in the prior-year quarter. Escalade does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Net sales were $55.5 million, down 3.2% year over year from $57.3 million. Operating income was $3.7 million, up 19.3% year over year from $3.1 million.
Hooker Furnishings Corporation (HOFT)
(04/17/2025)
Hooker Furnishings reported a diluted loss of $0.22 per share for its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 ended February 2, down from $0.06 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 241.9% lower than the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.155 per share. Net sales were $104.5 million, up 7.9% year over year from $96.8. The company declared an operating loss of $2.7 million, down year over year from operating income of $340,000.
During fiscal-year 2025, the company returned $9.9 million to shareholders through dividends.
Kimball Electronics, Inc. (KE)
(05/06/2025)
Kimball Electronics reported adjusted earnings of $0.27 per share for its fiscal third-quarter 2025 ended March 31, up 162.0% from a loss of $0.24 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 42.1% above the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.19 per share. Net sales were $374.6 million, down 11.9% year over year from $425.0 million. Operating income was $11.7 million, up from a loss of $6.4 million in the prior-year quarter.
Landsea Homes Corporation (LSEA)
(05/12/2025)
Landsea Homes reported a first-quarter 2025 adjusted loss of $0.05 per share, down from $0.01 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 66.7% lower than S&P Global consensus estimate of –$0.03 per share. Total revenues were $310.8 million, up 5.7% year over year from $294.0 million. The company generated an operating loss of $11.2 million, down from a loss of $1.1 million in the prior-year quarter.
(05/07/2025)
Mistras Group reported a first-quarter 2025 diluted loss of $0.10 per share, down earnings of $0.03 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 176.9% below the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.13 per share. Revenue was $161.6 million, down 12.4% year over year from $184.4 million. The company reported an operating income loss of $1.0 million, down from income of $5.5 million in the prior-year quarter.
(04/30/2025)
NACCO Industries reported first-quarter 2025 diluted earnings of $0.66 per share, up 8.2% from $0.61 per share in the prior-year quarter. NACCO Industries does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Revenue was $65.5 million, up 23.0% year over year from $53.3 million. The company reported an operating profit of $7.6 million, up 65.1% year over year from $4.8 million.
During the quarter, the company paid $1.7 million in dividends to shareholders and repurchased $700,000 of its common stock.
Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. (NGS)
(05/12/2025)
Natural Gas Services reported first-quarter 2025 diluted earnings of $0.43 per share, up 4.9% year over year from $0.41 per share. Earnings were 62.1% higher than the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.265 per share. Total revenue was $41.4 million, up 12.1% year over year from $36.9 million. Operating income was $9.5 million, up from $9.3 million in the prior-year quarter.
Nortech Systems Incorporated (NSYS)
(05/14/2025)
Nortech Systems reported a first-quarter 2025 loss of $0.48 per share, down from earnings of $0.26 per share in the prior-year quarter. Nortech Systems does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Net sales were $26.9 million, down 21.4% year over year from $34.2 million. The company generated an operating loss of $1.6 million, compared to operating income of $1.2 million in the prior-year quarter.
Pangaea Logistics Solutions Ltd. (PANL)
(05/12/2025)
Pangaea Logistics Solutions reported a first-quarter 2025 adjusted diluted loss of $0.03 per share, down from $0.25 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 74.3% higher than the S&P Global consensus estimate of –$0.117 per share. Total revenue was $122.8 million, up 17.2% year over year from $104.7 million. Operating income was $2.9 million, down from $11.0 million in the prior-year quarter.
Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH)
(05/06/2025)
Park Ohio Holdings reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of $0.66 per share, down 22.4% from $0.85 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 21.0% below the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.835 per share. Net sales were $405.4 million, down 2.9% year over year from $417.6 million. Operating income was $18.9 million, down 21.3% year over year from $24.0 million.
(04/17/2025)
Park Ohio Holdings declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.125 per share in line with the prior declaration. The dividend is payable on May 16, to shareholders of record as of May 2. The stock will trade ex-dividend on Friday, May 2.
(05/13/2025)
Regis reported adjusted diluted earnings of $0.43 per share for its fiscal third-quarter 2025 ended March 31, up from a loss of $0.61 per share in the prior-year quarter. Regis does not have earnings coverage by S&P Global. Consolidated revenue was $57.0 million, up 15.9% year over year from $49.2 million. Operating income was $5.0 million, up from $4.1 million in the prior-year quarter.
(04/29/2025)
Rocky Brands reported first-quarter 2025 diluted earnings of $0.66 per share, up 94.1% from $0.34 per share in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted earnings of $0.73 per share were 40.4% higher than the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.52 per share. Net sales were $114.1 million, up 1.1% year over year from $112.9 million. Income from operations was $8.7 million, up 8.8% year over year from $8.0 million.
Vishay Precision Group, Inc. (VPG)
(05/06/2025)
Vishay Precision Group reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted diluted earnings of $0.04 per share, down 116.2% from $0.42 per share in the prior-year quarter. Earnings were 42.9% below the S&P Global consensus estimate of $0.07 per share. Net revenues were $71.7 million, down 11.2% year over year from $80.8 million, with gross profit margin decreasing from 43.4% to 37.7% over the same period.
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