Nearly Half of Investors Believe Economy Will Weaken in Next 6 to 12 Months

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members how they expect the U.S. economy will perform over the next six to 12 months. Approximately 46% of responses we received say they believe the U.S. economy will weaken over the next six to 12 months. Many respondents cite trade issues for the expected downturn, while others expect political turmoil to negatively impact the economy. On the other hand, 31% of respondents say that they expect the economy to perform moderately well, with expected growth to remain positive but not as high as in previous years. Additionally, 23% say that they believe the U.S. economy will remain flat over the next six to 12 months as the Federal Reserve continues to adjust monetary policy.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

• “Poorly. As tariffs affect China, the world economy will suffer greatly. Our economy is part of the world and is already showing many signs of distress.”
• “It will trend downward due to all the trade disputes and reduced economic activities.”
• “Growth and inflation as measured by the government will both slow but no recession ... yet.”
• “I suspect the economy to continue to grow at a 2.0% to 2.5% pace. Solid, but not fast, and not even close to the best economic growth that we have had in the past.”
• “I believe the economy will hold steady as interest rates decline.”

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