Economic Rotation & Budding in the First-Quarter ETFs

The eye-catching numbers at the end of the first quarter of 2021 for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are their annualized one-year returns. 

The eye-catching numbers at the end of the first quarter of 2021 for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are their annualized one-year returns. The top one-year performers in sector, international and domestic ETF categories trace the economic recovery from the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic in the first quarter of 2020. Many top funds posted triple-digit one-year returns at the end of March 2021.

The returns for the quarter also show investors moving their money as they see economies recovering. The fund categories with high returns and those with low returns this quarter represent broad economic rotations.

There is optimism among U.S. economists for the country’s quick recovery, though there is still much global uncertainty. For the last three months, top- and bottom-performing domestic ETFs outperformed top- and bottom-performing international ETFs.

Sector

Sector ETFs accounted for all of the top five performers for the first quarter. Leading all ETFs was a fund focused on the growing global cannabis industry: Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX), with a return of 61.6%. The fund follows the performance and yield of the Cannabis Index, which consists of the largest companies currently deriving most of their revenue from related cannabis business and some of the largest companies expected to do so shortly.

The Cambria Cannabis ETF (TOKE) was also a top sector performer with a return of 39.9%. These two ETFs’ returns for the quarter represent a similar trend to the surge in clean energy ETFs in 2020—they are related to policy initiatives. The cannabis industry continues to gain ground in the U.S. and globally, and policymakers have publicly expressed a desire to expand legalization at the federal level in the U.S.

Two energy ETFs were among the top-performing sector ETFs for the quarter, marking a shift from the category’s general bottom performance in 2020. The Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF (PSCE) had a return of 43.2% and the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) had a return of 39.6%.

The bottom-performing sector ETFs also marked shifts in investing from 2020. Three precious metals ETFs composed the bottom five sector ETFs: Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ), iShares MSCI Global Silver & Metals Miners ETF (SLVP) and Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM) had losses of 17.8%, 13.8% and 12.0%, respectively. Funds and stocks related to this sector did well last year as investors retreated into precious metals to offset low interest rates and bond yields.

International

Among the top equity ETFs in the first quarter, international funds had the smallest returns. The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF (DXJ) led international stock ETFs with a return of 12.5%, followed by the iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF (ECNS) with a return of 12.2%. Three China-region ETFs were among the top five.

The WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF gives broad exposure to Japanese dividend-paying companies with an exporter tilt while mitigating exposure to currency fluctuations between the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. It follows the WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity Index.

Two ETFs following Chinese tech and communications companies were the worst-performing international ETFs for the first quarter: the KraneShares CICC China 5G & Semiconductor ETF (KFVG) and the Global X MSCI China Information Tech ETF (CHIK), with losses of 12.5% and 10.8%, respectively. Recently, the Chinese government has increased its scrutiny of the country’s tech companies, posing the biggest change to this market.

Brazil also appeared among the bottom international ETFs as it struggles to contain the coronavirus. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) and Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF (FLBR) were down 9.9% and 9.7%, respectively.

Domestic

For U.S. equity ETFs, the first quarter marked a significant shift toward the previously underperforming value factor, specifically funds following small-cap strategies. Four of the top five domestic ETFs are value-oriented and four are small-cap-based.

Domestic ETFs are led by the Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV), with a return of 27.3%. This ETF was launched in September 2019 and follows the Russell 2000 Value index. It also appears in the top domestic funds by one-year annualized returns, with a gain of 135.2%. The Invesco RAFI Strategic US Small Company ETF (IUSS) also made the list of top performers for the quarter and on a one-year basis. The small-cap blended strategy’s first-quarter return is 24.6% and its one-year annualized return is 118.1%.

Growth-based ETFs made up the bottom performers for the quarter, primarily large-cap strategies. Large-cap growth fund ERShares Entrepreneur ETF (ENTR) lost 7.7% as the worst domestic fund, followed by the iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Growth ETF (IMCG) with a loss of 1.3% and the iShares Morningstar Small-Cap Growth ETF (ISCG) with a loss of 1.1%.

Best- and Worst-Performing Exchange-Traded Funds

Last Quarter Category Last Quarter Fund Name Last Quarter Ticker Last Quarter Return (%)   Last Year Category Last Year Fund Name Last Year Ticker Last Year Return (%)   Last Five Years Category Last Five Years Fund Name Last Five Years Ticker Last Five Years Return (%)
Top Domestic Funds                  
Sm Val Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF AVUV 27.3   Md Grth SPDR S&P Kensho Smart Mobility ETF HAIL 194.5   Lg Grth Invesco QQQ Trust QQQ 25.0
Md Val iShares Focused Value Factor ETF FOVL 25.9   Md Grth SPDR S&P Kensho New Econ Cos ETF KOMP 141.0   Md Grth Invesco S&P MidCap Momen ETF XMMO 24.3
Sm Val iShares US Small Cap Value Factor ETF SVAL 24.7   Lg Bld Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF SPHB 140.9   Lg Grth Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ETF ONEQ 23.3
Sm Bld Invesco RAFI Strategic US Small Co ETF IUSS 24.6   Sm Val Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF AVUV 135.2   Lg Grth iShares Russell Top 200 Growth ETF IWY 24.6
Sm Val SPDR S&P 600 Small Cap Value ETF SLYV 24.1   Sm Bld Invesco RAFI Strategic US Sm Co ETF IUSS 118.1   Lg Bld Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF SPHB 21.4
Bottom Domestic Funds                  
Lg Grth ERShares Entrepreneur ETF ENTR (7.7)   Lg Bld DeltaShares S&P 500 Mgd Risk ETF DMRL 22.5   Lg Val Invesco S&P 500 Hi Div Low Vol ETF SPHD 7.3
Md Grth iShares Morningstar Mid-Cap Grth ETF IMCG (1.3)   Lg Bld Invesco S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF SPLV 26.2   Lg Val iShares Core High Dividend ETF HDV 7.9
Sm Grth iShares Morningstar Sm-Cap Grth ETF ISCG (1.1)   Lg Bld iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF USMV 30.5   Sm Bld Invesco S&P SmallCap Low Volat ETF XSLV 8.2
Lg Grth American Century Foc Dynmc Gr ETF FDG (0.6)   Lg Val VanEck Vectors Morning’r Dur Div ETF DURA 33.3   Lg Val Legg Mason Low Volat High Div ETF LVHD 8.8
Lg Grth iShares Morningstar Growth ETF ILCG (0.6)   Md Val Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volat ETF XMLV 33.4   Lg Val SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 High Div ETF SPYD 8.9
Top Sector Funds                  
Misc Sec Global X Cannabis ETF POTX 61.6   Misc Sec Invesco Solar ETF TAN 257.9   Tech iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF SOXX 37.5
Energy Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF PSCE 43.2   Misc Sec First Trst NASDAQ ClnEdg GrnEngy ETF QCLN 241.6   Misc Sec First Trst NASDAQ ClnEdg GrnEng ETF QCLN 37.0
Misc Sec Cambria Cannabis ETF TOKE 39.9   Con Cyc Invesco S&P SmCp Consm Discret ETF PSCD 213.8   Tech VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF SMH 36.3
Energy SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explor&Prod ETF XOP 39.6   Con Cyc SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT 202.1   Misc Sec Invesco Solar ETF TAN 34.0
Con Cyc SPDR S&P Retail ETF XRT 38.7   Energy Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF PSCE 192.5   Tech SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF XSD 33.5
Bottom Sector Funds                  
Prec Mtl Sprott Junior Gold Miners ETF SGDJ (17.8)   Util iShares US Utilities ETF IDU 18.8   Energy SPDR S&P Oil&Gas Equip&Servs ETF XES (19.7)
Misc Sec iShares Global Clean Energy ETF ICLN (14.4)   Util Vanguard Utilities ETF VPU 18.9   Energy VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF OIH (17.0)
Prec Mtl iShares MSCI Glbl Silver&Mtls Mnrs ETF SLVP (13.8)   Util Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF XLU 19.2   Energy iShares US Oil Equip & Services ETF IEZ (15.9)
Prec Mtl Sprott Gold Miners ETF SGDM (12.0)   Util Fidelity MSCI Utilities ETF FUTY 19.3   Energy Invesco S&P SmallCap Energy ETF PSCE (15.5)
Misc Sec Invesco Solar ETF TAN (11.5)   Util Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Util ETF RYU 20.3   Energy SPDR S&P Oil&Gas Explor&Prod ETF XOP (6.4)
Top International Funds                  
Japan WisdomTree Japan Hedged Equity ETF DXJ 12.5   Wld Lg Franklin Disruptive Commerce ETF BUYZ 130.8   China Global X MSCI China Consum Disc ETF CHIQ 25.8
China iShares MSCI China Small-Cap ETF ECNS 12.2   Wld Lg Global X Thematic Growth ETF GXTG 116.5   China WisdomTree China exStOwn Ent ETF CXSE 23.7
China Franklin FTSE Taiwan ETF FLTW 11.5   China Global X MSCI China Consumer Disc ETF CHIQ 103.9   China iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF EWT 19.3
Misc Reg WisdomTree Germany Hedged Eq ETF DXGE 11.4   Wld Lg Principal Millennials ETF GENY 93.8   Pac exJp iShares Asia 50 ETF AIA 18.1
China iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF EWT 11.4   Misc Reg Franklin FTSE South Korea ETF FLKR 92.6   Lat Am iShares MSCI Brazil Small-Cap ETF EWZS 16.7
Bottom International Funds                    
China KraneShares CICC China 5G&Semicd ETF KFVG (12.5)   Lg Bld Invesco S&P Intl Dev Low Vol ETF IDLV 18.4   Misc Reg iShares MSCI Mexico ETF EWW (2.1)
China Global X MSCI China Info Tech ETF CHIK (10.8)   Lg Bld iShares MSCI EAFE Min Vol Factor ETF EFAV 19.1   Misc Reg iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF EWM (1.3)
Lat Am iShares MSCI Brazil ETF EWZ (9.9)   China Global X MSCI China Financials ETF CHIX 20.1   Wld S-M Global X SuperDividend ETF SDIV 0.1
Lat Am Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF FLBR (9.7)   Misc Reg iShares MSCI Malaysia ETF EWM 20.5   China Xtrackers Hsvt CSI500 China A Sm ETF ASHS 0.2
China VanEck Vect ChinaAMC SME-ChiNx ETF CNXT (8.6)   Wld Lg iShares MSCI Global Min Vol Factor ETF ACWV 24.6   Misc Reg iShares MSCI Spain ETF EWP 3.6
Top Bond Funds                  
Pref Stk InfraCap REIT Preferred ETF PFFR 4.2   Pref Stk InfraCap REIT Preferred ETF PFFR 47.6   High Yd VanEck Vectors Fall Agl HiYld Bd ETF ANGL 10.2
Corp iShares Interest Rt Hdg L/T Corp Bd ETF IGBH 3.2   High Yd iShares Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF FALN 37.3   Long Bd Vanguard Long-Term Corp Bd ETF VCLT 6.7
High Yd iShares iBonds 2024 Term HY and Inc ETF IBHD 2.1   Pref Stk VanEck Vectors Pref Secs ex Fincls ETF PFXF 34.3   MultiSec Invesco Variable Rate Preferred ETF VRP 6.6
NonTrad ProShares High Yield—Interest Rt Hdgd HYHG 2.0   High Yd VanEck Vectors Fall Angel HiYld Bd ETF ANGL 31.3   Long Bd iShares 10+ Year Invest Gr Corp Bd ETF IGLB 6.5
High Yd iShares iBonds 2023 Term HY and Inc ETF IBHC 2.0   High Yd FlexShares HY Val-Scrd Bd HYGV 28.2   Pref Stk VanEck Vectors Pref Secs ex Fincls ETF PFXF 6.5
Bottom Bond Funds                  
Long Gv PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon US Trs ETF ZROZ (19.1)   Long Gv PIMCO 25+ Yr Zero Coupon US Trs ETF ZROZ (24.1)   World SPDR Blmbg Barclays ST Int’l Treas ETF BWZ 0.6
Long Gv Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF EDV (18.0)   Long Gv Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF EDV (21.5)   UltraShrt SPDR Blmbg Barclays 1-3 Mo T-Bill ETF BIL 1.0
Long Gv iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT (14.0)   Long Gv iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF TLT (17.1)   Emg Loc iShares JP Morgan EM Lcl Ccy Bd ETF LEMB 1.1
Long Gv Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF SCHQ (13.5)   Long Gv Schwab Long-Term US Treasury ETF SCHQ (16.2)   UltraShrt iShares Treas Floating Rate Bd ETF TFLO 1.1
Long Gv SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF SPTL (13.5)   Long Gv SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF SPTL (15.8)   UltraShrt iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF SHV 1.2
Source: Morningstar, Inc. Data as of 3/31/2021.
Copyright 2021 American Association of Individual Investors and Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Discussion

PEGGY M from FL posted over 5 years ago:

the meaning of budding?


BARRY J from TX posted over 5 years ago:

Peggy, as near as I can tell, "Budding" in the article's title looks like a pay on words for street terms for cannabis as "buds" and the performance of cannabis EFTs.


CAROL B from CO posted over 5 years ago:

Regarding the embedded table, it would be helpful if all columns were displayed so that users wouldn't have to scroll from left to right.


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