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Dispatches

Baby Boomers and Stock Valuations

Will the retirement of baby boomers impact the valuations of stocks? Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco argues it may.

Will the retirement of baby boomers impact the valuations of stocks? Research published by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco argues it may.

The study’s authors, Fed researchers Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel, say age differences explain about 61% of the valuation changes that occurred between 1954 and 2010. They determined this by first calculating the ratio of adults aged 40–49 to those aged 60–69, which they called the M/O ratio (ratio of middle-age cohort to older-age cohort). They then compared the M/O ratio to the year-end price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500. As the M/O ratio rose from 0.18 to 0.74 between 1981 and 2000, the S&P 500’s price-earnings ratio tripled from 8 to 24. During the past decade, both the M/O ratio and the price-earnings ratio declined.

A reason for the shift is that as investors age, so do their allocation requirements. Older investors are likely to be more conservative, with a greater preference for asset preservation than asset growth. (Though Fidelity’s survey suggests this may not currently be the case.) As a result, bonds would be favored over stocks.

Liu and Spiegel then applied their methodology to predict future trends. Using the Census Bureau’s projected population data and assuming earnings grow at the average long-term inflation-adjusted annualized rate of 3.42%, they came up with a bearish forecast. Specifically, they predict the S&P 500’s price-earnings multiple will fall from 15 in 2010 to about 8.3 in 2025, before rebounding to about 9 in 2030.

This is not the first study to predict that the retirement of baby boomers will have a negative impact on stock valuations, but like others before them, Liu and Spiegel listed several caveats. Among them were volatility in bond prices and more foreign investment in U.S. stocks. Other economists have theorized that immigration of younger workers into the U.S. could also increase demand for stocks. Plus, to the extent that older investors allocate more to stocks than expected, stocks prices will also benefit. Thus, future stock valuations may be considerably different than what current demographic trends suggest.

Source: “Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets?” FRBSF Economic Letter.

Discussion

Jeff from NJ posted over 14 years ago:

While it may generally be true that older (retired) individuals typically lean heavily upon fixed income investments, the current interest rate environment will likely drive this cohort towards riskier (dividend paying) assets (or emerging markets fixed income). The wildcard would seem to be how long it will be before U.S. inflation and interest rates move significantly higher.


Dave from WA posted over 14 years ago:

I guess I am one of those boomer (soon to be retired) types, but I am not sure I agree that all dividend paying stocks are riskier than bonds. In my opinion, bonds are "orders of magnitudes" more riskier than bonds, unless of course you believe that interest rates can stay where they are over the next 5-10 years. That is why my bond exposure right now is miniscule. Mainly because in retirement if you ever needed to sell those bonds over the next 5-10 years you would most likely be selling them at a loss, which is not really going to help the already minute interest that they are paying.


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