Future Retirees at Greater Risk of Hardship

Due to changes in the retirement system, future retirees may have more difficulty than current retirees withstanding a financial shock, according to separate studies.

Most current retirees appear able to withstand some type of financial shock. Future retirees may have more difficulty doing so due to changes in the retirement system, says a research fellow at the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College.

Financial shocks are primarily described as a spike in medical expenses or a sharp drop in income. The latter most often occurs when a retiree is widowed. Following the death of a spouse, Social Security benefits are reduced along with pension benefits (if the deceased had access to one).

While a drop in income can create problems, a 2009 study found that most retirees do not forgo needed food or medication. A separate study found that non-medical spending increases following a health shock. (Public and private insurance helped to cover the cost of the medical expenditures.) Combined, the studies found most widows to have sufficient reserves to maintain their standard of living.

Future retirees may have a tougher time absorbing such shocks. The transition from pensions to 401(k) plans is leading to a greater reliance on personal savings. A 2012 study found personal financial assets accounting for just 42% of retirement income for Gen-Xers in the middle-income range, assuming 80% of financial assets are annuitized at retirement. Projections cited by the CCR paper suggest retirement replacement rates could be 9% lower for middle-income Gen-Xers relative to recent retirees. The paper’s author further cautions that these numbers could be conservative since many retirees may not annuitize or be able to do so at actuarially fair rates.

Future retirees also face the potential problem of a big financial shock occurring early in retirement. If forced to withdraw more than planned from their savings to cover expenses, they would increase the risk of incurring financial hardships later in life. There is also the possibility of a sharp downturn in the financial markets occurring soon after retirement, making difficult choices about managing savings even harder.

CCR suggests that households approaching retirement consider both increasing how much they save and reducing fixed expenses, especially by downsizing. Working longer, annuitizing wealth and using reverse mortgages are also suggested.

Source: “Will the Financial Fragility of Retirees Increase?,” Steven A. Sass; Center for Retirement Research at Boston College; February 2018, Number 18-4.

Discussion

Janet Heikens from IA posted over 8 years ago:

YES, THE FINANCIAL FRAGILITY OF SENIORS WILL INCREASE. THEIR SOCIAL SECURITY AMOUNT BASED ON THEIR EARNINGS IS LOWER THAN WHAT RETIREES ARE EARNING NOW AND COST OF FOOD, CLOTHING, ETC IS ALL HIGHER. I BELIEVE THAT SOMEHOW WE NEED TO MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THIS DIFFERENCE IN THEIR SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENT.


Donald Myers from AZ posted over 8 years ago:

The biggest danger to future retirees as well as current retirees is a President constantly manipulating the market with tweets and disruptive actions. The key question is whether this will set a precedent for future Presidents to follow. Ordinary citizens would not be allowed to act this way and neither should Presidents, this is "pump and dump" of an extreme nature. There is no way (than by a future vote) that investors can protect themselves from the extreme volatility we have and are seeing almost every day.


Steven Sears from IA posted over 8 years ago:

This article basically says that if Gen X people run out of money they will be broke. At the end is some good advice to spend less and save more.


Kendrick Miller from NC posted over 8 years ago:

THE BASIC PROBLEM IS THE LOW RATE OF RETURN ON LOW RISK SAVINGS. ALL RETIREES FACE THIS PROBLEM TODAY, BUT IT IS ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT FOR THOSE THOSE IN THE PROCESS OF TRYING TO BUILD A SUBSTANTIAL RETIREMENT KITTY. THE GEN X SAVERS HAVE NOT HAD ACCESS TO 5% PASSBOOK SAVINGS ACCOUNTS OR 7% MONEY FUNDS AS POST WAR BOOMERS DID FOR AT LEAST HALF THEIR WORK/SAVINGS LIFE. ALSO THEY HAVE (COMPARED TO BOOMERS) FACED HIGH INFLATION IN THEIR MEDICAL, HOUSING, EDUCATION, AND TRANSPORTATION EXPENSES, LEAVING THEM LESS FUNDS AVAILABLE FOR RETIREMENT SAVINGS. LITTLE SAVINGS COMBINED WITH A LOW YIELD AND NO DEFINED RETIREMENT PLAN EXCEPT A MEAGER SOCIAL SECURITY PAYMENT (ASSUMING CONGRESS GETS OFF ITS ASS AND FIXES IT) WILL LEAD TO RISING EXTREME POVERTY FOR GEN X RETIREES.


David Kimbell from Iowa posted over 8 years ago:

This is an interesting AAII Journal issue where one article is that retirees may not be spending enough, and this one that cautions that future retirees could be in trouble. The main issue has always been spending and saving. How many Boomers do you know who continue to work into their 70s because they claim they have to? Frankly, these people did not pay themselves first when they started their careers in the 1970s and 80s and now they reap the rewards....or lack thereof. A classic example of lack of planning. Some may have been in low wage jobs, but there have been so many investment tools around since the 1980s that they could have saved something towards retirement. It is hard, but it can be done with sacrifice. How many post college graduates do you know who are loaded with loan debt? Most of the ones I know are saddled with so much college loan debt that it is affecting their ability to purchase a home. Some of this is also due to what their ability is to earn a supportive wage, and one could argue about our post secondary education system's cost/benefit ratio and how it is out of balance. Regardless, it means living within one's means with an eye to the future. It really comes down to looking beyond today and realizing that one day, we all retire. They must have the basics down when they retire - a plan knowing what their spending habits are; no debt as in credit card, short term loans, and have your home paid for. And then investments that give you enough of a return to offset your savings. It is hard to do that when your neighbor drives up in a new BMW, but that is where one's discipline comes into play.


David T from FL posted over 8 years ago:

Presidents come and go, Congress unfortunately comes and stays and they continue to run annual deficits. There is going to be a day when our "upside down government" will be forced to deal with the consequences. A greater percentage of retirees in the future will not have pensions so they better have investments. Statistics show the investments are going to come up short in many cases. So you have troubling demographics, financially illiterate Federal Government, less people getting pensions and not enough personal savings/investments. Not going to be pretty.


Paul Kuzma from CO posted over 7 years ago:

Are you serious Clark? The President is not manipulating the market with his tweets.


Roman Pohorecki from KS posted over 7 years ago:

Donald, It is shocking how wrong you are ! 1. Volatility until Oct 2018 was extended historically low level. 2. The Prez can not substantially manipulate the market, except maybe a wrinkle on a wave. The possible wrinkle is the effect of a Prez comment, the wave is the effect of other forces determining the direction and magnitude of market movement. Keep reading AAII


Roland Guilz from NY posted over 7 years ago:

First, I would like to thank Davis Kimbell for his excellent post. Second, if children learn to live within their means, save a little for the future, choose a college that they can afford with minimal borrowing (it can be done), and realize that an employer who offers a lower salary, but has a defined benefit retirement plan or a seriously good match on the defined contribution plan, they are going to be so far ahead of the game. Lastly, regardless of one's political views, it would be a serious mistake for this country to cut Social Security and/or Medicare benefits for retirees. These benefits are a lifeline for these people and cuts to these benefits will adversely impact the economy, specifically in terms of potential bankruptcies from health care events and reduced spending power.


Gerard Bieker from Kansas posted over 7 years ago:

In 1980 three counties in Texas privatized their social security system. Today at almost every level the retirees in those counties get almost double, almost 80% vs 40%, what the rest of us will get. FYI - The insurance companies backing those Texas social security funds guarantee 5 to 5.75% return which is very reasonable return guarantee. So a future answer to fixing social security is to privatize our Social Security system. Sorry Don I also disagree that the President is manipulating the market. With 25% of American now being 65 and older we need a strong American work force who have good jobs because if Americans don't work and pay taxes nothing going to be worth anything including the full faith and credit of the double AA US Government Bond. It drives me nuts that Johnson & Johnson corporate bond is AAA rated and the US Government Bond is AA rated.


Joe Taylor from Utah posted over 7 years ago:

Outfits like the AARP make a business out of not only lobbying politicians for more retiree goodies, but also scaring the grey lobby into voting for more socialism. "The sky is falling . . . really, the freaking sky is FALLING!" This cry of warning has been sounded since the beginning of time. The truth is, people need to be reasonably frugal and plan ahead, and many people do neither. Once you're retired, your housing is likely debt-free, you've already bought most of the clothing and other stuff you need, and you need to focus on the positive and taking care of your health and your time. Also, people don't understand that Social Security is more of a welfare program than a retirement program, and there's little relationship between any individual's contributions and their "benefits." This is one reason why it seems to unfair. You've got people who put in little (or pennies), and they're now taking out dollars. Government doesn't know how to budget anything, and they've robbed the "trust funds," and reneged on their initial promises to never tax social security, etc. Yeah, cause for concern . . . but more of a cause for being watchful, disciplined, and diligent.


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