Figure 1. Recommended Fund Portfolio vs. Benchmarks
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CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE FULL SIZE.
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The last six months have not been very good for our Model Mutual Fund Portfolio, or for the market in general. The fund portfolio was only slightly ahead of the S&P 500 index. However, it is still significantly ahead for the past 12 months and for the two-year life of the portfolio, as can be seen in Figure 1 and Figure 2.
Since the fund portfolio is now two years old, it’s helpful to separate the performance history of the funds currently recommended from the performance of the actual portfolio (it is a real portfolio). The history of the currently recommended funds, as shown in Figure 1, is important because it lets you see the characteristics of the funds we currently recommend and their performance over various periods.
Figure 2. Actual Fund Portfolio vs. Benchmarks
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CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE FULL SIZE.
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The actual portfolio, as shown in Figure 2, is different because we have replaced some funds, and our weightings are based on prices as of June 30, 2003, or whenever we added new mutual funds. Depending on when you began investing in the Model Mutual Fund Portfolio and how many funds you bought, you will have different results. But they should be similar to the average results from Table 1 for the funds you chose and the period you have held them.
Portfolio Changes
We are selling Royce Premier (RYPRX) because its expense ratio was too high for a fund of its size and it violates Rule 6 (See the Selection Rules box). Royce Premier continues to grow rapidly, likely because of the marketing of the fund available from the 12b-1 fees that keep the expense ratio up and will, in my judgment, reduce effectiveness. This is the kind of rule violation that we might let slide for awhile—and we did let it slide for six months. But we also feel that the holdings of Royce Premier and Royce PA Mutual (PENNX) are so similar that there is no reason to keep them both, and we feel that Royce PA Mutual has a better future outlook.
We are replacing Royce Premier with CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX). This requires some explanation since the fund is not 10 years old (Rule 2). If you examine Rule 2, however, you will see that it says a shorter life is acceptable under certain circumstances. CGM Focus meets all our criteria except the 10year history, and because of the exceptional performance to date from the fund’s inception, it is very likely that it will meet those requirements when it is 10 years old. More importantly, because of its performance we feel that it likely will be closed before its 10th birthday.
I want to emphasize that we are not selecting this fund because it has been the top performer for various periods over recent years, but because it meets our criteria now and most likely will meet them in 2007. The reason we are introducing CGM Focus to the model portfolio now rather than making it an alternative fund and moving up one of the two alternatives instead is our concern that it may close.
Individual mutual fund performance, because of internal diversification, changes much more slowly than that of individual stocks, so there is no reason to rush to sell, particularly if you are nearing long-term capital gain treatment on Royce Premier. However, it might be wise to take a minimum position in CGM Focus to reduce the chance of being shut out by a closing if you wish to keep Royce Premier longer.
Changes in Rules and Definitions
Because of overall stock market changes over the past year, we are changing the definitions of size, as shown in the Mutual Fund Cap Size and Style box.
Due to the inflow of dollars to mutual funds and the increase of market value over the past year, we are adjusting the size limitations in Rules 5 and 6, as shown in the Selection Rules box.
The rest of this year should be challenging. I will be reviewing the portfolio holdings of the Model Mutual Fund Portfolio in the February 2006 AAII Journal and performance figures will be updated monthly on AAII.com.
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