The stock market adjustment that began in late May hurt the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio, but as of May 31 it was still up 11.4% for the year as compared to 2.5% for the Vanguard 500 Index fund (VFINX). Figure 1 shows the comparisons for other periods and indexes.
For well over a year now pundits have been saying the time for small cap and value is about to end, and we should all switch to large-cap growth. However, large-cap growth year-to-date through May 31 is down 0.4%, as measured by Vanguard’s Growth Index fund (VIGRX, not shown).
Figure 1. Model Shadow Stock Portfolio vs. Benchmarks (Through 5/31/06)
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CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE FULL SIZE.
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Some year, no doubt, large cap and growth will be winners. But I would hang with small cap and value even though they will occasionally have a poor year.
Just as a refresher—the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio provides guidance for investing in the promising micro-cap value sector of the market. It reflects my investing philosophy, which holds that:
- The best stocks for individual investors are not the same stocks that are best for institutions;
- Ultimately, the best returns come from giving major consideration to risk; and
- Success comes more from concern for the overall portfolio than concern for individual stocks.
The Model Shadow Stock Portfolio is an actual portfolio with real dollars invested, and updates on portfolio activity are provided both in the AAII Journal in this column, and at on our Web site (www.aaii.com/aaiiportfolios/).
| Table 1. Second-Quarter 2006 Transactions |
| Company (Ticker) |
Reason |
| Sell |
| GenTek Inc. (GETI) |
exceeded value limits |
| Marsh Supermarkets (MARSA/B) |
buyout pending |
| The Stephan Co. (TSC) |
negative earnings |
| Zapata Corp. (ZAP) |
negative earnings |
| Buy |
| Avalon Holdings Corp. (AWX) |
| Handelman Co. (HDL) |
Quarterly Portfolio Activity
Table 1 highlights the activity during June, and Table 2 shows the current holdings and their status in the portfolio.
GenTek (GETI) was sold because it had gone over the value limit.
Marsh Supermarkets (MARSA/B) was sold because the board has agreed to sell out. There are competing offers and since the current price is higher than the offer the board is currently supporting, we sold.
Stephan Co. (TSC) and Zapata (ZAP) were sold for violating the earnings probation rules.
We added Avalon Holdings Corp. (AWX) and Handelman Co. (HDL) to the portfolio.
There have been no rule changes this month; the full set of rules is presented on page 30.
The next Model Portfolios column will be in the August AAII Journal and will cover the Model Mutual Fund Portfolio.
Monthly updates of both the Shadow Stock and Mutual Fund Portfolios can be found at AAII.com along with their past histories and rules.
The Outlook
While I have no idea where the market is going from here, I believe that small caps and value are still the place to be.
The downturn that began toward the end of May seemed unusual, but so did the strong market earlier in the year.
In the yearly patterns based on election cycles, this year is generally not a strong year. However, next year—the year before the presidential election—is typically the strongest, averaging +22.7% and never negative since 1931.
I will discuss this further in my column in the October AAII Journal with the next Shadow Stock Portfolio review.
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