Over the last three months, the market in general continued its weakness, with smaller company stocks a bit weaker than large caps.
However the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio is still up 8.5% for the year, compared to 5.7% for the Vanguard 500 Index Fund (VFINX). Figure 1 shows the comparisons with other indexes and for other periods.
Figure 1. Model Shadow Stock Portfolio vs. Benchmarks (Through 8/31/06)
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CLICK ON IMAGE TO SEE FULL SIZE.
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Every so often we like to review the entire year-by-year history of the Model Shadow Stock Portfolio, and this is shown in Table 1.
In looking at the long term, you can see that, not only has the Shadow Stock Portfolio had a higher overall average annual return than the market indexes (18.6% compared to 10.3% for the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, 11.2% for the Vanguard Small Cap Index and 14.4% for the DFA US Micro Cap Fund), but it has been fairly consistent in beating the market indexes in individual years. The Model Shadow Stock Portfolio has beat both the Vanguard 500 Index fund and the Vanguard Small Cap Index fund in nine out of the last 13 years; it has beat the DFA US Micro Cap Fund in seven out of the last 13 years. Clearly, the small capitalization and value criteria result in a portfolio that has provided significantly higher returns than the market indexes.
Quarterly Portfolio Activity
Table 2 highlights the activity in the portfolio over the last three months, and Table 3 shows the current holdings and their status in the portfolio.
All American Semiconductor (SEMI) and BioScrip Inc. (BIOS) were on probation and had a subsequent negative quarter that required their sale. Navigant International (FLYR) was bought out at $16.50 a share.
Bairnco Corp. (BZ) had a tender offer from Steel Partners that has not been approved by the Bairnco board. While I originally did not plan on selling, I decided to do so for several reasons: No better offer has been forthcoming, 48% of the shares have already been tendered to Steel Partners, and there are a number of new stock buying opportunities at this time. The offer is expiring (Sept. 28) while I am writing this but may be extended.
We were able to add five new stocks to the portfolio: CPAC Inc. (CPAK), Blair Corp. (BL), Flexsteel Industries (FLXS), Hastings Entertainment (HAST) and Huttig Buildings Products (HBP). We have not had this many stocks available for quite awhile.
The one good thing about a soft period in the market is that it is easier to buy stocks without having to chase them as they move up.
| Table 2. Third-Quarter 2006 Transactions
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| Company (Ticker) |
Reason |
| Sell |
| All American Semiconductor (SEMI) |
negative earnings |
| Bairnco Corporation (BZ) |
buyout pending |
| BioScrip Inc. (BIOS) |
negative earnings |
| Tender |
| Navigant International (FLYR) |
acquired by Carlson Wagonlit Travel |
| Buy |
| CPAC Inc. (CPAK) |
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| Blair Corporation (BL) |
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| Flexsteel Industries, Inc. (FLXS) |
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| Hastings Entertainment, Inc. (HAST) |
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| Huttig Buildings Products, Inc. (HBP) |
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For the Do-It-Yourselfers
I frequently get questions from members who have either bought stocks that we list as “Passing Companies” on AAII.com in the months between the Model Shadow Stock portfolio changes or who have found stocks that qualify through the use of Stock Investor Pro, our fundamental stock screening software.
We certainly encourage this do-it-yourself approach, but it means you will have to set up your own system for implementing the sell rules for these stocks. This is easy enough to do, particularly if you have Stock Investor Pro, but it is your responsibility.
Overall, buying passing stocks on your own should increase your returns because you will pick up opportunities that will be gone by the time our quarterly activity takes place.
The full set of portfolio rules appears in Table 4 and in the Shadow Stock Portfolio area of AAII.com.
The Market Outlook
In my July 2006 update, I mentioned that this is usually a mediocre year in the election cycle.
But next year is the year before a presidential election, and that has always been the strongest year. The year before a presidential election has not been down since 1931 and has averaged +22.7%. A number of analysts are suggesting next year will be strong for other reasons as well. If there are enough predictions of a great 2007, then the initial move might come late this year.
Predicting the stock market is always risky and the best approach, in my judgment, is to stay close to your normal asset allocation all the time; although a slight variation under different economic conditions is reasonable.
The next Shadow Stock Portfolio column will be in January 2007, but monthly updates can be found at AAII.com in the Shadow Stock Portfolio area.
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