First-Quarter Earnings Not Changing Outlook for Two out of Five Investors

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what influence first-quarter earnings are having on their outlook for stock prices. Nearly two out of five respondents (38%) say either earnings have not affected their outlook or that other factors are having a bigger influence. Approximately 20% say any positive impact from earnings is being offset by the trade war. Seventeen percent of respondents think earnings are near a cyclical top or don’t support the current level of valuations. About 18% view first-quarter earnings as a positive for stocks.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

• “I do not use earnings to determine my outlook. The economy has more going on than just earnings.”
• “Any positive influence from earnings has been negated by the trade war.”
• “First-quarter earnings and those for prior quarters are at a level where future earnings growth will be more difficult.”
• “Earnings have generally been positive.”

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