AAII Sentiment Survey: Individual Investors’ Expectations Nearly Unchanged

Individual investors’ expectations about the short-term direction of the stock market are nearly unchanged from a week ago. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey only shows fractional changes in optimism and pessimism.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, edged up 0.1 percentage points to 29.6%. This is the 19th time this year that optimism is below its historical average of 38.5%.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, is unchanged at 38.4%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 21st time in 22 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined by just 0.1 percentage points to 32.1%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 30.5% for the seventh consecutive week.

All three indicators are currently within their typical ranges.

Many individual investors have been monitoring trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China. The rebound in stock prices may have relieved some concerns about a steeper decline in stock prices occurring, though others still anticipate a larger drop than occurred this spring. Also having an influence are monetary policy, Washington politics (including President Trump), geopolitics, valuations, corporate earnings and the pace of economic growth.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 29.6%, up 0.1 percentage points
• Neutral: 38.4%, unchanged
• Bearish: 32.1%, down 0.1 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 38.5%
• Neutral: 31.0%
• Bearish: 30.5%

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

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See more Sentiment Survey results.