AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rises to 12-Week High

Optimism about the short-term direction of the stock market rose to a 12-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Neutral sentiment is slightly higher and bearish sentiment is modestly lower.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 2.0 percentage points to 35.6%. Optimism was last higher on July 31, 2019 (38.4%). Nonetheless, bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.0% for the 35th time this year and the 23rd time in 24 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the 22nd time in 23 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, declined 2.8 percentage points to 28.3%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 30.5% for just the third time in 14 weeks.

At current levels, all three indicators are within their historical averages.

Many individual investors have been monitoring trade negotiations, particularly between the U.S. and China. Also having an influence on sentiment are Washington politics, geopolitics, valuations, corporate earnings, economic growth, monetary policy and interest rates.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 35.6%, up 2.0 percentage points
• Neutral: 36.1%, up 0.8 percentage points
• Bearish: 28.3%, down 2.8 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 38.0%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 30.5%

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

If you want to become an effective manager of your own assets and achieve your financial goals, consider a risk-free 30-day Trial AAII Membership

See more Sentiment Survey results.