AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Pulls Back Below 40%

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market fell back below 40% for the first time in three weeks. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows higher levels of neutral and bearish sentiment.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 6.5 percentage points to 34.2%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.0% for 37th time this year.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rebounded by 2.3 percentage points to 36.7%. The increase keeps neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.5% for the 26th time in 27 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 4.2 percentage points to 29.0%. Even with the increase, pessimism remains below its historical average of 30.5% for the fifth consecutive week.

Though there was a decrease in optimism this week, the change wasn’t significant relative to the trends we’ve seen throughout the year. At current levels, all three indicators are well within their typical ranges.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey

• Bullish: 34.2%, down 6.5 percentage points
• Neutral: 36.7%, up 2.3 percentage points
• Bearish: 29.0%, up 4.2 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 38.0%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 30.5%

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

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See more Sentiment Survey results.