AAII Sentiment Survey: Two-Month High for Neutral Sentiment

The percentage of individual investors describing their short-term outlook for the stock market as “neutral” is at a two-month high. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows declines in both optimism and pessimism.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 1.9 percentage points to 31.7%. Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.0% for 39th time this year.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, rose 3.1 percentage points to 39.2%. Neutral sentiment was last at this level on October 2, 2019. The increase keeps neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.5% for the 28th time in 29 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, pulled back by 1.1 percentage points to 29.1%. Pessimism is below its historical average of 30.5% for a seventh consecutive week.

Since topping 40% on consecutive weeks in early November, optimism has fallen by a cumulative nine percentage points. Pessimism, conversely, has stayed in a very tight range over the past three weeks and registered between 28.3% and 30.3% during five out of the last seven weeks.

Neutral sentiment is near the upper end of its typical range. Readings of 40.0% or higher are unusually high.

AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 31.7%, down 1.9 percentage points
• Neutral: 39.2%, up 3.1 percentage points
• Bearish: 29.1%, down 1.1 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 38.0%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 30.5%

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

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See more Sentiment Survey results.