AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rebounds Modestly

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market rebounded modestly. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows small drops in neutral and bearish sentiment.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 1.9 percentage points to 33.9%. Optimism is below its historical average of 38.0% for the 40th time in the past 52 weeks.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, declined 0.3 percentage points to 30.9%. The historical average is 31.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, pulled back by 1.6 percentage points to 35.2%. The historical average is 30.5%.

All three indicators are currently within their typical historical ranges.

The coronavirus outbreak is dampening the economic outlook for some but not all individual investors as the responses to this week’s special question show. Also affecting individual investor sentiment is the market’s upward trend, the phase-one trade deal between the U.S. and China, the November elections, Washington politics, earnings growth, monetary policy, the economy and valuations.

This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:

• Bullish: 33.9%, up 1.9 percentage points
• Neutral: 30.9%, down 0.3 percentage points
• Bearish: 35.2%, down 1.6 percentage points

Historical averages:

• Bullish: 38.0%
• Neutral: 31.5%
• Bearish: 30.5%

Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.

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See more Sentiment Survey results.