Where Past Bear Markets Have Bottomed
by Charles Rotblut | March 23, 2020
Charles Rotblut recently spoke at the AAII Investor Conference 360. Video replays of all sessions are available for purchase. Go to www.aaii.com/investorconference for more details.
With the S&P 500 down from its record high, many individual investors are worried about the severity of the bear market and where the bottom might be.
AAII Journal editor Charles Rotblut looks at historical bear markets to gauge the kind of decline that can be expected in a bear market.
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Discussion
william from Alabama posted over 6 years ago:
Thanks for the downturn statistics and comments.
Craig B from Wisconsin posted over 6 years ago:
Okay, so prices are down in the past few weeks. But how much are earnings going to be down as reported in the upcoming quarters? Stocks could still be expensive if earnings drop in line with the market expectations of the past two weeks in particular. I am worried about the 'bear bounce' and especially if/when Mr. Market realizes the federal deficit-enhancing stimulus is not going to reduce unemployment nor increase earnings as hoped for and predicted. That along with sour earnings report could make the second dip of this bear market as bad or even worse than the first one. I am not dipping it yet...kids back to school, VIX below 25 and 2 consecutive weeks of S&P 500 being in positive territory and then I will begin using my cash position to dollar-cost-average back up to my target equities level of 50% (I am 66 y/o) over a 3 month period. This was my plan written down two years ago as markets roared and I entered full retirement. I still believe it valid and will stick to the plan even if markets rise in the short term.
Jack from NJ posted over 6 years ago:
good info, would be good to have that spreadsheet if you can make it available. my opinion, its way to early to buy. we are in the volatile reflexive stage of the bear. people are still buying and there is way too much optimism, the bear does not die in optimism, the bear dies in despair. i am 'selling the rallies' to have cash later to buy when we have the next painful drop down.
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