Forty Percent of Investors Say Their Outlook Influenced Most by Pandemic and Reopening

In this week’s Sentiment Survey special question, we asked AAII members which factors are most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks. Two out of five (40%) respondents say that the country’s ability to manage the coronavirus pandemic and reopen businesses in the near future are the biggest influential factors. This compares to 30% of respondents who say quarterly economic data and the unemployment rate are the most influential factors. Other factors include earnings reports (named by 12% of respondents) and the upcoming election (10%). Additionally, 9% of respondents fall into the ‘other’ category, naming interest rates, political issues and Federal Reserve efforts to boost the economy.

Here is a sampling of the responses:  

• “Unemployment cannot go away quickly. Major financial delinquencies have not yet been recognized. The stock market is looking long-range assuming that everything goes back to normal, but the above issues will not be as before.”
• “We are looking at businesses opening back up and there is pent up demand to socialize. I believe there is a lot of cash on the sidelines and the stock market is the main place to invest.”
• “High unemployment, many small business failures. I believe that we will retest the lows of this past March. There will be a great deal more pain before we begin to recover in the second half of 2021.”
• “The pressures to restart the economy are growing and the old standard approach of looking at past data is nearly useless, so I think a look-ahead mentality will prevail. I don’t think we’ll make new market highs ... just higher than we are now.”

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