AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Falls but Remains High
by AAII Staff | September 17, 2020
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market declined but continues its streak of staying above 40%. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows higher levels of optimism. Neutral sentiment is slightly lower this week.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded 8.3 percentage points to 32.0%. Bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 28th consecutive week and the 33rd week this year.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell by 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%. This is the 34th time out of 36 weeks that neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, dropped by 8.1 percentage points to 40.4%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 30th consecutive week and the 32nd time this year.
Pessimism continues to stay at an unusually high level. Pessimism is above 40% for the 25th time out of the past 28 weeks. Both bullish and neutral sentiment are within their typical historical ranges.
The persisting high level of pessimism reflects concerns about the coronavirus pandemic, the economy and the upcoming election. The recent decline in the Nasdaq composite may have also played a role. Other factors influencing AAII members’ sentiment include the economy, valuations and interest rates.
This week’s AAII Sentiment Survey results:
- Bullish: 32.0%, up 8.3 percentage points
- Neutral: 27.6%, down 0.2 percentage points
- Bearish: 40.4%, down 8.1 percentage points
Historical averages:
- Bullish: 38.0%
- Neutral: 31.5%
- Bearish: 30.5%
Want to weigh in? Take the survey yourself and see results online at www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey.
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Bullish: 32.0%, up 8.3 points
Neutral: 27.6%, down 0.2 points
Bearish: 40.4%, down 8.1 points
Bullish: 38.5%
Neutral: 31.0%
Bearish: 30.5%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
Discussion
MICHAEL W from MD posted over 5 years ago:
The market is a casino. With ZERO percent interest rates, savers are now investors and investors are now gamblers. When the market plunges again, the average person will be wiped out because they had no choice but to go to the stock market casino.
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