AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls While Neutral Sentiment Rises

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks fell in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment increased to a level above its historical average.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 8.2 percentage points to 40.4%. Bullish sentiment remains above its historical average of 37.5% for the 11th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 5.6 percentage points to 32.9%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the first time in seven weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 2.6 percentage points to 26.8%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 11th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 10.8 percentage points to 13.6%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 11th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which fixed-income instrument they are overweighting in their portfolios.

Here is how they responded:

• Money market funds: 36.8%
• U.S. Treasurys: 21.2%
• Investment-grade corporate bonds: 9.3%
• High-yield corporate bonds: 5.2%
• Other/not sure: 26.4%

See more Sentiment Survey results.