AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Rises Again

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks fell in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment increased and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 1.1 percentage points to 39.3%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 12th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 1.8 percentage points to 34.6%. This is the highest reading since September 14, 2023 (36.4%). Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the second time in eight weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.7 percentage points to 26.1%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 12th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 0.4 percentage points to 13.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 12th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what information they are particularly paying attention to as companies are reporting fourth-quarter 2023 earnings.

Here is how they responded:

• Guidance on future revenues and earnings: 37.4%
• Whether earnings were better or worse than expected: 21.9%
• Sales and/or earnings growth: 19.9%
• Fundamentals such as the balance sheet or cash flow: 14.0%
• Other: 5.3%

See more Sentiment Survey results.