AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Skyrockets While Neutral Sentiment Decreases

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks skyrocketed in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment plummeted while pessimism slightly declined.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%. Bullish sentiment is at an unusually high level and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. Optimism was last higher on December 21, 2023 (52.9%).

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 8.2 percentage points to 26.4%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the first time in three weeks. Neutral sentiment was last lower on December 7, 2023 (25.3%).

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 11.4 percentage points to 24.5%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 13th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what impact the record high of the S&P 500 index had on their short-term outlook for stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• Made me greatly optimistic: 6.6%
• Made me somewhat optimistic: 45.7%
• No impact: 15.5%
• Made me somewhat pessimistic: 25.9%
• Made me greatly pessimistic: 5.7%

See more Sentiment Survey results.