AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Increases

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both neutral sentiment and pessimism decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 2.1 percentage points to 44.3%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 16th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 1.5 percentage points to 29.5%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 10th time in 12 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 0.6 percentage points to 26.2%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 16th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 2.7 percentage points to 18.1%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 16th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members which factor is most influencing their six-month outlook for stocks.

Here is how they responded:

• The economy and/or inflation: 35.8%
• Monetary policy/interest rates: 26.8%
• Corporate earnings: 16.2%
• Valuations: 12.6%
• Other: 8.6%

See more Sentiment Survey results.