AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Decreases
by AAII Staff | February 29, 2024
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment increased.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 2.2 percentage points to 46.5%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 17th consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 2.6 percentage points to 32.2%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the third time in 13 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased 4.9 percentage points to 21.3%. Bearish sentiment is unusually low and is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 17th consecutive week.
The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 7.1 percentage points to 25.2%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 17th consecutive week.
This week’s special question asked AAII members how the November elections are affecting their expectations for the stock market.
Here is how they responded:
- Making me more cautious: 42.7%
- Making me more optimistic: 19.6%
- No impact: 36.2%
- Other: 1.5%
Bullish: 46.5%, up 2.2 points
Neutral: 32.2%, up 2.6 points
Bearish: 21.3%, down 4.9 points
Bullish: 37.5%
Neutral: 31.5%
Bearish: 31.0%
See more Sentiment Survey results.
Discussion
GREG S from CA posted over 2 years ago:
To the map showing sentiment among the various states, please add the number of people participating in the survey in that state. Based on the bull/bear percentages, in some states I'd guess that only 4 people provided their input. Please provide the numbers of people voting, otherwise it's hard to take what I see seriously.
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