AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Rises to Unusually High Level

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks increased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, pessimism slightly increased and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased 5.2 percentage points to 51.7%. Bullish sentiment is unusually high and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 18th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 5.7 percentage points to 26.5%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the fifth time in six weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.4 percentage points to 21.8%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 18th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) increased 4.8 percentage points to 30.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 18th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members how, if at all, they have changed their approach to investing recently.

Here is how they responded:

• Switched around some investments, but modest changes overall: 30.8%
• Become slightly more conservative: 20.8%
• Become more aggressive: 14.5%
• Become much more conservative/cautious: 9.3%
• No changes: 23.5%

See more Sentiment Survey results.