AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Falls but Remains Above Average

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.8 percentage points to 45.9%. Bullish sentiment remains above its historical average of 37.5% for the 19th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 5.7 percentage points to 32.2%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.5% for the second time in seven weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 0.1 percentage points to 21.9%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 19th consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 6.0 percentage points to 24.0%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 19th consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members about their perception of fourth-quarter 2023 earnings.

Here is how they responded:

• They were better than I expected: 46.4%
• They approximately matched my expectations: 38.8%
• They were worse than I expected: 2.5%
• No opinion: 12.3%

See more Sentiment Survey results.