AAII Sentiment Survey: Optimism Decreases for Second Consecutive Week

Optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks decreased in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, neutral sentiment and pessimism increased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 3.8 percentage points to 43.4%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 23rd consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, increased 2.0 percentage points to 32.5%. This puts neutral sentiment above its historical average of 31.5%.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 1.8 percentage points to 24.0%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the 23rd consecutive week.

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 5.7 percentage points to 19.4%. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 23rd consecutive week.

This week’s special question asked AAII members what impact the S&P 500 index’s 10.2% rise in the first quarter of 2024 had on them.

Here is how they responded:

• Made me greatly optimistic: 7.2%
• Made me somewhat optimistic: 39.9%
• No impact: 19.6%
• Made me somewhat pessimistic: 28.0%
• Made me greatly pessimistic: 4.7%

See more Sentiment Survey results.