AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Jumps to Highest Level Since November

Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Meanwhile, both optimism and neutral sentiment decreased.

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, decreased 5.2 percentage points to 38.3%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 24th consecutive week.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, decreased 4.8 percentage points to 27.8%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the fourth time in five weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, increased 9.9 percentage points to 34.0%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the first time in 24 weeks. Bearish sentiment was last higher on November 2, 2023 (50.3%).

The bull-bear spread (bullish minus bearish sentiment) decreased 20.8 percentage points to 4.3%. The bull-bear spread is below its historical average of 6.5% for the first time in 24 weeks.

This week’s special question asked AAII members if they think other investors are too bullish or bearish right now.

Here is how they responded:

• They are too bullish: 49.5%
• Their sentiment toward the market is about right: 26.8%
• They are too bearish: 14.0%
• No opinion/not sure: 8.2%

See more Sentiment Survey results.